Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales Strong In April

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for April 2013

Dollar sales in April improved by 14% to $222,253,098 from March’s $195,775,825, up a healthy 14% from last April’s $195,717,473. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. We are at the early part of the busy sales season and are seeing good gains.

Unit sales were up 10% to 1,264 in April from 1,149 in March, an increase of 115. This is up 4% from April 2012 at 1,219.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,272 sales for April. For April, the projections are less than 1% higher than achieved for the month and 4% for the year. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).  New sales improved by 5 units to 128 homes this month from 123 in March and are up from 114 last year. Used sales improved 11% to 1,136 homes in April from 1,026 last month, an increase of 110,  and up 31 from 1,105 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 9,404 vs. 10,893 last year and 9,773 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 786 in April from 1,068 in March, a decline of 282 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went up in Jefferson County to 115 for March from 68 in February. Shelby County permits went up to 37 from 33 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3).There are 11 under $100,000 new homes active, a ten month supply. The New homes up to $700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range. The $700,000-$800,000r price range are twenty months of supply. The over $900,000 new inventory is at 6 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in April shows 9 months, one month better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,618 are lower than the 10,018 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $400,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 221 compared to last month at 193. The Used homes DOM was 135 in April, compared with 148 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $247,502 from $254,566 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $167,758 from $160,297 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 5/11/13

Birmingham, Central Alabama Residential Real Estate Sales Continue To Improve In March

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for March 2013

Dollar sales in March improved by 17% to $189,049,614 from February’s $161,712,660, up a healthy 8% from last March’s $174,568,674. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. We are at the beginning of the busy months of the sales season and are seeing gains in dollars sales while unit sales are somewhat constrained.

Unit sales were up 17% to 1,122 in March from 960 in February, an increase of 162. This is down 1% from March 2012 at 1,133. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,277 sales for March. This number will increase as late sales are reported. For now, the projections indicated 12% higher than achieved for the month and 7% for the year. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).  New sales improved by 17 units to 119 homes this month from 102 in February and are off from 115 last year. Used sales improved 17% to 1003 homes in March from 858 last month, an increase of 145,  and down 15 from 1,018 last year(Sect E p.3). For the 1st Quarter, unit sales were up by 3% for the 1st quarter as compared with the 1st quarter last year to 2,943 from 2,855 units last year.

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 8,969 vs. 10,526 last year and 10,458 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 765 in March from 1016 in February, a decline of 251 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 68 for February from 96 in January. Shelby County permits went up to 33 from 16 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). The New homes up to $700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply, although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 3 months (only one home). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in March shows 6 months, two months better than the 8 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,241 are lower than the 9,612 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $400,000 price range is beginning to climb somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 193 compared to last month at 197. The Used homes DOM was 148 in March, compared with 147 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $253,169 from $268,189 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $158,447 from $156,594 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 4/13/13

January Birmingham Residential Sales Up 14% from Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for January 2013

Sales in January declined by 21% to $132,100,460 from December’s $167,858,938, up a healthy 14% from last January’s $115,485,241. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the middle of the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results, although the year over year gains are meaningful.

Unit sales were down 14% to 824 in January from 963 in December, a decrease of 139. This is up 7% from January 2012 at 768. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 are not yet complete but should be shortly and will be forwarded as soon as completed. The January results are roughly in line with what we expect from the preliminary work on the forecast. New sales declined by 44 units to 87 homes this month from 131 in December and are off from 91 last year. Used sales declined 12% to 737 homes in January from 832 last month, a decrease of 95,  but up 42 from 695 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 15% lower at 8,781 vs. 10,384 last year and 9,086 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory solidly below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 782 in January from 953 in December, a decline of 171 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 62 for December from 67 in November. Shelby County permits went down to to 17 from 23 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 10 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply, although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 8 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in January shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,999 are lower than the 9,487 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,233, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory which drags down the overall months of inventory for all homes. There are fewer numbers of homes in the over $900,000 price range listed any time since early 2007, although months of inventory is still high due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 201 compared to last month at 172. The Used homes DOM was 146 in January, compared with 141 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $227,836 from $262,835 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $152,346 from $160,370 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

TWB 2/9/13

Birmingham December Sales Finish Well, Total Sales Up 8% For The Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for December 2012

For 2012 Unit sales increased 8% to 13,472 from 12,468 last and are off 7% from our full year projection of 14,550. Total dollar sales for the year were up 15% to $2,307,752,868 from $2,002,963,782.

Sales in December declined by 9% to $163,401,188 from November’s $179,368,554, up a healthy 12% from last December’s $146,269,023. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the middle of the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results.

Unit sales were down 10% to 941 in December from 1,048 in November, a decrease of 107. This is down 3% from December 2011 at 970. This is 14% unfavorable to our projection of 1,099 sales expected for December and 7% unfavorable year to date (this will improve as late sales are recorded). The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales improved by one unit to 128 homes this month from 127 in November and off from 135 last year. Used sales declined 12% to 813 homes in December from 921 last month, a decrease of 108 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 16% lower at 8,519 vs. 10,174 last year and 9,943 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 736 in December from 997 in November, a decline of 261 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 67 for November from 77 in October. Shelby County permits went down to to 23 from 28 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 14 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply. although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 8 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in December shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,783 are lower than the 9,304 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,615, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes. There are fewer homes in the over $900,000 price range listed since early 2007 although months of inventory is still high due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 172 compared to last month at 201. The Used homes DOM was 141 in December, compared with 148 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $262,386 from $233,626 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $159,675 from $162,539 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.
TWB 1/12/13

Birmingham November Real Estate Sales Up 11% Year Over Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for November 2012

Sales in November declined by 3% to $175,290,274 from October’s $180,739,461, up a healthy 11% from last November’s $158,075,509. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the beginning of slowest three months of the sales season. So it is best not to try to read too much into these results.

Unit sales were down 4% to 1,018 in November from 1,056 in October, a decrease of 38. This is up 5% from November 2011 at 972. This is 4% unfavorable to our projection of 1,055 sales expected for November and 7% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales declined 9% to 124 homes this month from 126 in October, a decrease of 2 units. Used sales declined 4% to 894 homes in November from 930 last month, a decrease of 36 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 16% lower at 9,193 vs. 10,993 last year and 10,257 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 764 in November from 993 in October, a decline of 229 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went up in Jefferson County to 77 for October from 67 in September. Shelby County permits went up to  to 28 from 18 (see website for details). Permits are (marginally)exceeding sales once again.

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 15 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in November shows 9 months, three months better than the 11 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,429 are lower than the 10,051 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,256, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 201 compared to last month at 181. The Used homes DOM was 148 in November, compared with 143 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $234,210 from $247,711 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $163,589 from $160,783 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

TWB 12/15/12

 

Birmingham Residential Real Estate Sales Fall Off in September

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for September 2012

Sales in September declined sharply by 30% to $181,268,948 from August’s $257,339,430, down 3% from last September’s $186,720,876. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward.

Unit sales were down 26% to 1,048 in September from 1,407 in August, a decrease of 359. This is down 10% from September 2011 at 1,166. This is 16% unfavorable to our projection of 1,255 sales expected for September and 8% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales declined 10% to 131 homes this month from 146 in August, a decrease of 15 units. Used sales declined 27% to 917 homes in September from 1,261 last month, a decrease of 344 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 16% lower at 9,753 vs. 11,624 last year and 10,658 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 747 in September from 998 in August, a decline of 251 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 90 for August from 99 in July. Shelby County permits went up to 27 from 23 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month, and better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 13 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-6 month range. Higher price ranges ranges are one to two years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in September shows 9 months, three months better than the 12 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,006 are lower than the 10,662 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $44,686, which makes up 31% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 173 compared to last month at 204. The Used homes DOM was 145 in September, compared with 138 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $268,219 from $257,337 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $159,359 from $174,281 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: the Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

The differences between our numbers and the Board of MLS numbers are  due to our taking in all the data in the MLS system while they report on a more concentrated area picked from the whole; therefore we have more of the surrounding rural areas, which are not as volatile.

TWB 10/13/12

 

Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales in August Very Strong

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for August 2012

Sales in August improved 12% to $252,563,959 from July’s $226,145,943, up 25%!! from last August’s $202,434,570. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward. The last time we have seen a sales increase from July to August was in 2005 and 2006.

Unit sales were up 16% to 1,376 in August from 1,190 in July, an increase of 186. This is up 12% from August 2011 at 1,227. This is about .5% unfavorable to our projection of 1,384 sales expected for August and 8% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales improved 14% to 136 homes this month from 119 in July, an increase of 17 units. Used sales improved 19% to 1,240 homes in August from 1,071 last month, an increase of 169 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 20% lower at 9,835 vs. 12,225 last year and 10,964 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is the 1st time in quite a while that total inventory is below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 727 in August from 1,018 in July, a decline of 291 units (Sect E p.3). Note though, that new homes reached a low of 875 for sale in December and a high of 1,018 last month.  Housing permits went up for Jefferson County to 99 for July from 90 in June. Shelby County permits declined to 13 from 25 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is deteriorating slightly. New homes are at 6 months supply this month with an improving sales pace, and better than last year at this time at 9 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes are at 14 months supply and deteriorating. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-6 month range. Higher price ranges ranges are one to two years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in August shows 9 months, four months better than the 13 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,108 are lower than the 11,222 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $47,000, which makes up 31% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 204 compared to last month at 212. The Used homes DOM was 138 in August, compared with 143 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are moving into the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $258,495 from $262,178 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $175,330 from $182,023 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: the Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

The differences between our numbers and the Board of MLS numbers are  due to our taking in all the data in the MLS system while they report on a more concentrated area picked from the whole; therefore we have more of the surrounding rural areas, which are not showing robust growth.

By: Tom Brander  9/15/12
Google

Alabama Real Estate confidence index

Summary

The survey projects expectations for the 3rd quarter of 2012. The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

The professional Real Estate community’s optimism tempered somewhat this quarter. The outlook for sales (yellow) this quarter is still showing improvement expected, from 61 to 58 this quarter, but not at the same pace as last quarter. This is 4 points higher than last year at this time.

Overall Indicators

While all scores are down modestly except for price expectations, which still indicate continued declines in prices (48) and credit availability (48). The national score at 49, down from 52 last quarter, indicates that respondents are more pessimistic about the overall economic picture. The participants remained positive on the statewide conditions at 57 down 2 points from last quarter. Sales expectations are more positive at 58 again down 3 points from last quarter. Inventory expectations remained at 52 indicating continued improving conditions expected. Sellers are likely to be frustrated by pricing, and buyers will continue to have problems getting financing.

Regional Results:

The coastal region continued its’ upward trend in most measures and is now the most optimistic in the state. On an overall basis all areas remain above 50, indicating expansion expected.

Regional Indicators

This quarter showed deterioration in all measures and in all regions except on the coast. To some degree this may be a seasonal phenomena. None the less the results are still encouraging, with most measures still in the expansion zone, over 50

Commercial market participants (the majority of the respondents are from the Birmingham market area) moved to projecting a slowing improving market this quarter at 52 this quarter vs. 59 last quarter for sales expectations. Price expectations are still soft, at 47 vs 48 last quarter indicating pricing pressure. The score for credit availability remains constructive, at 51 down from 54 points from last quarter.

North Region

North Alabama experienced a modest deterioration in most scores.  The total score of 51, down from 53, a 2 point decline from last quarter. The Rural markets were an exception. increasing sales expectations to 54 from 50 last quarter.

North Central Region

The North Central Region overall score declined to 51 from 54 last quarter, The sales score declined 6 points to 55. Inventory is continuing to improve at 51 with, pricing, and credit below the 50 mark with each at 48.

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants outlook for sales declined 5 points to 56.

South Region

The Southern Region sales score improved 3 points to 63. Rural participants sales expectations improved 6 points to 63.

About the Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index and Survey:

More than 400 professionals responded to the 3rd quarter 2012 survey which was conducted during the month of June 2012. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate now has the largest participation of any real estate survey. It provides important market insights. Full history and scores for each market segment are located here on the web http://goo.gl/XoNZE

The ACRE Leadership Council  determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu

 

Birmingham June Real Estate Sales A Bit Light

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for June 2012

Sales in June improved 12% to $248,919,439 from May’s $222,870,833, up 13% from last June’s $220,590,225. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward.

Unit sales were up 3% to 1,313 in June from 1,272 in May, an increase of 41. This is up 4% from June 2011 at 1,262. This is 11% unfavorable to our projection of 1,483 sales expected for June and 9% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales improved 17% to 156 homes this month from 133 in May, an increase of 23 units. Used sales improved 2% to 1,157 homes in June from 1,139 last month, an increase of 18 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 21% lower at 10,132 vs. 12,794 last year and 10,930 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Still, there is less of a seasonal increase in listings than last year. Active New listings decreased to 720 in June from 1,044 in May, a decline of 324 units (Sect E p.3). Housing permits went down for Jefferson County to 100 for May, down from 107 for April. Shelby County permits increased somewhat (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is improving. New homes are at 6 months supply this month with an improving sales pace, and better than last year at this time at 10 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply seems to be in a “normal” state. Under $100,000 New homes are at 10 months supply and improving. The New homes in the $100,000-$400,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 6-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in June shows 10 months, four months better than the 14 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,412 are lower than the 11,766 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3).

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 185 compared to last month at 215 . The Used homes DOM was 136 in June, compared with 149 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the most active sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $254,236 from $245,504 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $180,863 from $167,005 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used Homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, have stabilized  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

The differences between our numbers and the Board of MLS numbers are  due to our taking in all the data in the MLS system while they report on a more concentrated area picked from the whole, so we have more of the surrounding rural areas, which are not showing as robust growth right now.

TWB 7/14/12

Birmingham Real Estate Sales In May Continue To Improve

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for May 2012

Sales in May improved 11% to $215,887,628 from April’s $194,180,473, up 13% from last May’s $190,671,097. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward nicely.

Unit sales were up 2% to 1,232 in May from 1,207 in April, an increase of 25. This is up 11% from May 2011 at 1,110. This is 9% unfavorable to our projection of 1,395 sales expected for May and 12% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales improved 16% to 130 homes this month from 112 in April, an increase of 18 units. Used sales improved 0.6% to 1,102 homes in May from 1,095 last month, an increase of 7 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 28% lower at 10,212 vs. 13,035 last year and 10,908 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Still, there is less of a seasonal increase in listings than last year. Active New listings decreased to 757 in May from 1,088 in April, a decline of 331 units (Sect E p.3). Housing permits went down for Jefferson county to 107 for April up from 120 for March. (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is improving. New homes are at 6 months supply this month with a reduced sales pace, and better than last year at this time at 9 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply seems to be in a “normal” state. Under $100,000 New homes are at 11 months supply and improving. The New homes in the $100,000-$400,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 6-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in May shows 10 months, four months better than 14 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,455 are lower than the 11,906 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3).

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 215 compared to last month at 233 . The Used homes DOM was 149 in May, compared with 136 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used Homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the most active sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $247,801 from $225,573 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $166,673 from $154,261 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used Homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, have stabilized  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 6/9/12