2nd Quarter Alabama Statewide Residential Real Estate Survey Outlook Optimistic

The survey projects expectations for the 2nd quarter of 2013. The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

The professional Real Estate community’s optimism soared this quarter. All of the overall indicators are at the highest levels we have seen since beginning the survey in 2010. Sales expectations are at 65 up 10 points from last quarter. Only availability of credit continues to be viewed somewhat negatively, now at 49, up five points from last quarter.

Market Indicators 2q 2013

The national score at 57, up 10 points from last quarter, indicates that respondents are more optimistic about the overall economic picture. The participants are more positive on the statewide conditions at 62 up nine points from last quarter. Inventory expectations improved to 55 up 6 points indicating continued reduction of supply expected. Sellers may see some improvement for the first time in several years with a score of 56 up six points from last quarter. Financing continues to be viewed negatively at 49 indicating that buyers may face tight financing conditions.

Regional Results:

The coastal region continued to remain the most optimistic in the state at 69. On an overall basis all areas sales expectations gained at least 8 points with the lowest being the Huntsville North Alabama area at 61 still, indicating expansion expected.

Regional Outlook 2q 2013

This quarter showed substantial change in expectations in all regions. The results are encouraging, with overall measures in the expansion zone.

Commercial market participants (the majority of the respondents are from the Birmingham market area) turned positive this quarter (Total Stat) at 55 this quarter a five point improvement and climbing 14 points to 60 for sales expectations. Price expectations improved 6 points 52 indicating improved pricing conditions. The score for credit availability is looking stronger, up 7 points to 53, the first over 50 reading for this segment.

North Region

All areas except North Alabama had the highest levels we have yet seen. It is likely that anxiety over the sequester cuts effect on the defense oriented industry, served to dampen expectations. Nonetheless scores were positive and improved over the prior quarter. The total score of 53, up by 6. The sales outlook is positive at 61 up by 8 but with pricing pressure neutral at 51 (up by 6).

North Central Region

The North Central Region overall score improved to 58 up 8 from last quarter. The sales score improved to 65 from 54. Inventory score improved to 55 from 50 with, pricing moving to 56 from 52, and credit at 52.

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants’ outlook for sales improved from 65 from 51.  The only sub-segment declining and in negative territory is the Montgomery, Central Alabama Rural segment with sales expectations at 42, our sample size here was quite small however. The Suburban areas show sales expectations of 69 up from 52.

South Region

The Southern Region sales score are at the highest regional level, 69,  up 8.  Price expectations jumped 7 points to 62.

About the Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index and Survey:

More than 400 professionals responded to the 2nd quarter 2013 survey which was conducted during the month of March 2013. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate now has the largest participation of any real estate survey. It provides important market insights. Full history and scores for each market segment are located here on the web http://goo.gl/1ByP7

The ACRE Leadership Council  determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu

Real Estate Professionals More Optimistic As Summer Approaches

Summary The survey projects expectations for the 2nd quarter of 2012. The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

The professional Real Estate community’s optimism continues to improve. The outlook for sales (yellow) this quarter is at the highest level recorded in the three years this survey has been conducted, 61, a five point improvement from last quarter. This is one point higher than last year at this time.

While all scores are up to new highs, the survey participants are still expecting continued declines in prices (47) and credit availability (48). The national score at 52, up from 48 last quarter, indicates that respondents are more constructive on the overall economic picture. The participants moved to positive sentiment on the statewide conditions at 59 up 5 points from last quarter. Sales expectations are more positive at 61 again up 5 points from last quarter. Inventory expectations improved to 52 from last quarter, the first time this indicator has been above 50 indicating improving conditions expected. Sellers are likely to be frustrated by pricing, and buyers will continue to have problems getting financing.

Regional Results:

The sales expectations for each region are within 1 point of each other from 60-61.

This quarter showed an improvement in all measures and in all regions. To some degree this is a seasonal phenomena, the levels are at high points in the three year history of the survey. Of course the three years of the survey have been some of the most challenging in recent times. None the less the results are encouraging, and taken together with the early results of actual sales in the 1st quarter and the new ABRE sales projections for the remainder of the year that ACRE/Brander has recently released all point to improving conditions.

Commercial market participants (the majority of the respondents are from the Birmingham market area) moved to projecting a continuing improving market this quarter at 59 this quarter vs. 54 last for sales expectations. Price expectations are still soft, at 48 vs 45 last quarter indicating pricing pressure. The score for credit availability has turned constructive, at 54 up from 48 points from last quarter.

North Region

North Alabamaexperienced a consistent improvement in all scores.  The total score of 53, up from 51, a 2 point improvement from last quarter. The Rural markets were an exception to the increasing sales expectations with a drop to 50 from 59 last quarter.

North Central Region

The North Central Region overall score improved to 54 from 50 last quarter, The sales score improved 6 points to 61. Inventory is continuing to improve at 53 with, pricing, and credit below the 50 mark at 47, and 49 respectively.

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants outlook for sales improved 6 points to 61.  Rural participants sales expectations improved 10 points to 60.

South Region

The Southern Region sales score improved 4 points to 60. Rural participants sales expectations improved 7 points to 57.

About the Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index and Survey:

Almost 500 professionals responded to the 2nd quarter 2012 survey which was conducted during the month of March 2012. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate now has the largest participation of any real estate survey. It provides important market insights. Full history and scores for each market segment are located here on the web http://goo.gl/n6o8O

The ACRE Leadership Council  determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu

Baldwin County Slow Real Estate Sales in January

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of January 2012

Sales Dollars decreased 19% in January to $46,905,756 from December’s $57,963,803. This is 14% below January last year at $54,787,622. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales flattened out once again. Inventories are continuing to come down quite dramatically. Unit sales have recovered to normal levels. Dollar sales still lag reflecting fewer high end sales and lower prices. This situation is starting to reverse, with more high end homes selling. Still, it is unlikely that prices will increase for a while.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined 11% to 269 this month vs. 303 last month, which is 3% down from last year’s 278.

Used Home sales declined 14% to 238 this month vs. 278 last month, which is down 7% from last year’s 255 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 31 this month vs 25 last month. Low sales of New homes reflects intense competition from existing, and the shutdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes increased to 47 from 34 in December. Used houses New listings increased to 692 from 425 in December with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In January, there were 3,517 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,755 in December. The New home market, which peaked in January 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 321.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 12 months of inventory for January vs. 13 in December. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 10 months of inventory for January vs. 11 in December. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in January 2008 to 10 months this January.

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $187,616 from $192,034 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $172,646 from $191,234 in December.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in January was 229 this month vs. 186 last month. Days On Market for Used was 161 this month vs.169 last month.

While we have developed some interesting projections for the real estate market in the statewide, Birmingham and Huntsville markets, the numerous events on the coast such as the oil spill and several tropical storms, make the methods we used in the other markets unsuitable for the coast, but we are thinking about the problem!

TWB 2/11/2012

Baldwin County Has A Good 2011 In Real Estate

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of December 2011

Year end Summary:

	TOTAL	NEW	USED	New Avg price	Used Avg price	All Avg Price	Total $ Sales
2010	3,788	360	3,428	$198,008	$201,010	$200,781	$760,995,789
2011	4,392	322	4,070	$215,567	$200,589	$201,504	$887,630,802
% change	15.95%	-10.56%	18.73%	8.87%	-0.21%	0.36%	16.64%

The above chart illustrates, 2011 was a very substantial improvement over 2010. New Home sales were off due to lack of supply and the heavy competition with the used market. Prices remain under pressure.

Monthly Results:

Dollar sales this month decreased 2% to $57,553,203 from November’s $58,582,263. This is 15% below December last year at $67,350,226. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales flattened out once again. Inventories have been coming down quite dramatically. Unit sales have recovered to normal levels. Dollar sales still lag reflecting fewer high end sales and lower prices. This situation is starting to reverse, with more high end homes selling. Still, it is unlikely that prices will increase for a while. 

On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined 8% to 297 this month vs. 322 last month, which is 9% down from last year’s 325.

Used Home sales declined 10% to 272 this month vs. 303 last month, which is down 8% from last year’s 296 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 25 this month vs 19 last month. Low sales of New homes reflects intense competition from existing, and the shutdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes decreased to 34 from 57 in November. Used houses New listings decreased to 422 from 512 in November with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In December, there were 3,461 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,004 in November. The New home market, which peaked in December 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 317.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 12 months of inventory for December vs. 14 in November. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 10 months of inventory for December vs. 12 in November. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in December 2008 to 10 months this December.

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $192,034 from $219,064 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $193,943 from $179,604 in November.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in December was 186 this month vs. 174 last month. Days On Market for Used was 169 this month vs. 190 last month.

While we have developed some interesting projections for the Real Estate Market in the Statewide, Birmingham and Huntsville markets, the numerous events on the coast such as the oil spill and several tropical storms, make the methods we used in the other markets unsuitable for the coast.

TWB 1/15/2012

Alabama Coastal Real Estate Looking Better This October

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of October 2011

Dollar sales this month decreased 11% to $68,050,461 from September’s $76,595744. This is 19% above October last year at $57,221,979 when sales were impacted by the oil spill and the tax credit expiration (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is quite clearly on an upwards tilt as mentioned last month.

Baldwin Overall Sales October 2011

On a 9 month basis, only 2004 and 2005 exceeded this years’ unit volume. While inventories are high, unit sales have recovered to normal levels. Inventories in fact have declined quite dramatically. Dollar sales still lag reflecting fewer high end sales and lower prices. This situation is also reversing, with more high end homes selling. Still, given the inventory level, it is unlikely that prices will increase for a while. 

On a unit basis, sales of all houses declined 9% to 335 this month vs. 370 last month, which is 17% up from last year’s 287.

Used Home sales declined 15% to 335 this month vs. 370 last month, which is up 17% from last year’s 287 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 28 this month vs 33 last month. Low sales of New homes reflects intense competition from existing, and the shutdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes increased to 59 from 45 in September. Used houses New listings increased to 559 from 549 in September with net inventory still down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In October, there were 3,795 Active Used homes, a reduction from 4,253 in September. The New home market, which peaked in October 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 343.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 13 months of inventory for October vs. 14 in September. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 11 months of inventory for October vs. 13 in September. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in October 2008 to 11 months this October.

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $177,908 from $179,069 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $205,437 from $209,752 in September.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in October was 291 this month vs. 188 last month. Days On Market for Used was 182 this month vs. 167 last month.

TWB 11/12/2011

Birmingham Real Estate Sales Off To Slow Start In The New Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for January 2011

Sales in January declined 25% to $96,431,926 from December’s $128,898,461, down 13% from last January’s $110,758,827.  This was the worst monthly showing that we have on record. But then, January has always been the weakest month of the year. So, I would not read too much into any of the numbers this month.

Total unit sales were down 26% to 636 in January from 856 in December, a decrease of 220. This is a 12% reduction from January 2010 at 723. New sales declined 30% to 78 homes this month from 112 in December, a decrease of 34 units. Used sales declined 25% to 558 homes in January from 744 last month, a decrease of 186 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is virtually the same at 11,636  vs. 11,926 last year. Active New listings decreased to 1,087 in January from 1,205 in December, a decline of 118 units (Sect E p.3). The number of housing permits this month was unchanged at 35 in December for Jefferson County. Shelby County was up from 3 to 19. (See the website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes at a 7 months supply and a reduced sales pace, is better than the 8 months last year at this time (Sect E p.3). While the situation is still  distressed, New homes seem to be selling, and supply is keeping in balance. Strangely, under $100,000 New homes are at 16.8 months of sales, while those priced from $200,000-$500,000 range from 5.3 to 6.3 months of inventory, a pretty “normal” situation in such abnormal times.. (Sect C p.1 compare to last month and Sect E p.3.) New house inventories in higher price ranges (above $500,000) remain excessive at over a year.

Inventory shows a modest continuing seasonal decline for Used homes. Absorption for Used homes in January 2010 shows 10,549 Used Active listings (Sect E p.3) and 12 months of supply, the same as last year at this time (Sect E p.3). Since May 2010 the number of Used Active listings has dropped by almost 2,000! Unfortunately, the drop has been due more to cancellations than sales, but it is still positive news. It is also important to note that much of the decline is seasonal as sellers wait out the slow winter months. The higher price ranges are troubled, but hopefully showing some signs of stability as New listings moderate.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 228 compared to last month at 194. The Used homes DOM was 152 in January, compared with 143 last month (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $200,759 from $205,493 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $144,754 from $142,316 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for both New and Used homes has been trending up, but now has a downward hook at the end. (Sect A p2).

TWB 2/13/11

Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index 2nd Quarter Forecast

The Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index survey results are presented below. A complete pdf is located here.  Please see the  Alabama Center For Real Estate site for more information about it’s activities in support of the Real Estate Industry statewide.

Summary

Over 380 Real Estate Professionals responded to the second quarterly survey during the last two weeks of March and the first two weeks of April. The survey asked these professionals for their expectations for the second quarter of 2010.

The overall (residential & commercial combined) confidence level were not significantly different from the survey results for the 1st quarter of 2010. The statewide overall score dropped from 49 to 47 indicating a slight deterioration from the previous quarter.

The expectations for the nation are ranked at 47, indicating that respondents expect real estate conditions nationally to continue to deteriorate modestly.

Expectations for Alabama are more positive at 54 which is still a 3 point decline from last quarter. The score indicates “modest expectations” for improvement in the overall Alabama Real Estate market.

The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

2nd Quarter overall - Table

Commercial market participants were more positive this quarter than last with results up 7 points.

Regional Results

North Region

North Alabama has the highest overall scores, but at the same time also showed the largest shift downward. The total score of 50 indicates a consensus for no change in the coming quarter, but importantly this is a 4 point drop from a more positive outlook for the 1^st quarter of 54. The outlook for the Alabama market remains comparatively high at 60, but again this is a drop of 6 from the prior quarter (66). However market participants are more positive on the sales outlook for the 2^nd quarter than they were for the 1^st at 62 this quarter vs. 61 last.

2nd Quarter North Region-table

Commercial market participants, while still less optimistic than their residential counterparts, are getting generally more optimistic at least for sales, while the residential market participants are getting less so. Commercial participants see a lot more inventory available, and continue to see significant pricing pressure. Where we do not have sufficient respondents to provide a good sample such as the “rural commercial category’ we indicate that with na.

North Central Region

The North Central Region is slightly more negative than the North region but the trend is somewhat more favorable. The overall score increased from 47 last quarter to 48 this quarter.

Most measures showed positive movement with the notable exception of Inventory expectations. In particular the rural respondents see both Residential and Commercial Inventory as getting worse. As a consequence they also see pricing pressures at a low 38 for the coming quarter. Additionally the North Central participants see credit availability as being poor, and continuing to get tighter but not as negative as the prior quarter.

2nd Quarter North Central Region-table

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants remain unfavorable regarding both the national and local outlook. The biggest swing was in the outlook for residential credit in the rural areas which dropped 16 points from 36 to 23.

2nd Quarter South Central Region-table

South Region

The Southern Region was marginally more unfavorable in its outlook than the South Central region. The deterioration of the outlook is reflected in the drop in the overall score from 49 to 44 for the current quarter. The drops in scores was not very substantial (although pretty uniform), except in the rural areas where again the drop in credit availability expectations for Residential markets was quite pronounced, dropping 10 points from 41 to 31 which is the lowest of the 4 regions and the largest variance in quarter to quarter scores.

2nd Quarter South Region-table

The inaugural ACRE Leadership Council determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated and is excited to announce that Patricia Bridges from Tuscaloosa is the winner of the complimentary registration at this year’s AAR Summer Meeting at the Beau River Resort on June13th-16^th.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu

Birmingham area home sales drop in December, blogger says | Business News from The Birmingham News – al.com

Birmingham area home sales drop in December, blogger says

By Jerry Underwood — The Birmingham News

January 12, 2010, 10:03AM

Birmingham area home sales dipped in December, though there are some signs of a continued revival in the housing market, according to a real estate expert.

Real estate blogger Tom Brander says area home sales tumbled in December, but signs aren’t all negative.

On his blog, Tom Brander writes that the number of home sales in the state’s biggest metro area in December declined 17 percent from November to total 913 transactions. November’s total was inflated by buyers rushing to take advantage of a government tax credit that was set to expire, he notes.

via Birmingham area home sales drop in December, blogger says | Business News from The Birmingham News – al.com.