Birmingham Real Estate Sales Show Positive Trends in February

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for February 2013

Dollar sales in February improved by 15% to $156,249,103 from January’s $136,050,964, up a healthy 11% from last February’s $141,182,366. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. We are still in the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results, although the year over year gains are meaningful.

Unit sales were up 7% to 920 in February from 857 in January, an increase of 139. This is down 2% from February 2012 at 936. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1020 sales for February and of course the reported number will increase as late sales are reported. For now, the projections indicated 10% higher than achieved for the month and 6% for the year. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and here is the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).  New sales improved by 8 units to 99 homes this month from 91 in January and are off from 116 last year. Used sales improved 7% to 821 homes in February from 766 last month, an increase of 55,  and up 1 from 820 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 9,028 vs. 10,458 last year and 9,410 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory remaining below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 765 in February from 1016 in January, a decline of 251 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went way up in Jefferson County to 96 for January from 62 in December. Shelby County permits went down to 16 from 17 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 11 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply, although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 3 months (only one home). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in February shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,999 are lower than the 9,487 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,571, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory which drags down the overall months of inventory for all homes. The number of homes in the over $900,000 price range is beginning to climb from a low level but the months of inventory is still high  (14 months) due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 197 compared to last month at 201. The Used homes DOM was 147 in February, compared with 146 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $266,885 from $225,344 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $158,133 from $150,842 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 3/9/13

ABRE Analytics: 2013 Forecast for Alabama Residential Sales

Last year, ABRE Analytics, a collaborative research partnership consisting of the Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE) and Tom Brander, began studying the correlation between unemployment rates and future real estate sales projections in selected markets across the State of Alabama.

View full sizeABRE Analytics: 2013 residential sales projections for selected real estate markets. All rights reserved.

With the release of the metro unemployment data for January 2013, ABRE Analytics is pleased to present our 2nd annual forecast stemming from this methodology and related commentary.

Area	Full year 2011 Actual	Full year 2012 Proj	% chg from 2011	2012 Actual	Err % Diff to proj	Act 2012 % Diff to 2011	Forecast 2013	2013 F’cast to 2012 Act	Method Unemp or last Q
Statewide	36965	41,992	14%	39280	-6%	6%	41,799	6%	Last Q
Huntsville	8610	9,050	5%	9189	2%	7%	9,835	7%	Unemp
Birmingham	12468	14,550	17%	13514	-7%	8%	14,571	8%	Last Q
Auburn	1132	1,138	0%	1233	8%	9%	1,338	8%	Last Q
Tuscaloosa	1743	1,826	5%	1735	-5%	0%	1,935	12%	Unemp
Montgomery	2774	3,679	33%	3111	-15%	12%	3,342	7%	Last Q

Note: the error bars are at +/- 10%

The above table summarizes last year’s results and our expectations for 2013. These predictions assume no “major events”. As expected with any new trends model in its inaugural trial run, the 2012 predictions were mixed. Alabama residential saleswere up 5.9 percent in 2012.

In Huntsville, the forecast was within 2% of the full year 2012 results. In the aggregate, the results pointed in the right direction right, but with some error so this led the team to explore some alternative approaches for this year’s predictions to improve accuracy. In the markets with the greatest error we revised our methods to use the last quarter of 2012 sales via straight line linear regression instead of the unemployment rate. This method appears to be more accurate in most markets historically and hopefully going forward.

With these adjustments, above is the overview of what ABRE Analytics think might happen in 2013. As for the projection of a 12% increase for Tuscaloosa that is out of line with the other markets, ABRE’s opinion is that this may be a little too optimistic, but we have yet to figure out a consistent method to arrive at a better projection for Tuscaloosa in 2013. Of course, the local market’s near-term response to the tornado of April 27, 2011 certainly has a role with the difficulty in identifying a projection that could be presented with more confidence. Last year we experienced a similar issue with Montgomery, which prompted us to develop the alternative methodology of using last quarter sales for predictions.

The method ABRE used for 2012 was based entirely on the January unemployment rate for a market area. The assumption was that the January unemployment rate eliminated the effect of holiday temporary work and would reflect the mood of the populace towards buying and selling a new home in the upcoming year. A standard linear regression line yielded a better than 80% correlation since 2004 in all areas. The standard error however is somewhat high. This method also has the benefit of using two longer term trends, unemployment and home sales, and only at a single point per year, which eliminates a lot of “noise” in both series.

The seasonal regularity of sales is such that if you know the total sales for a year, dividing the total by the average proportion of the yearly sales attributable to a month has shown to be remarkably stable. Exceptions to the regularity do occur, such as fiscal cliff drama and the tax credit for first time home buyers in 2009. ABRE eliminates this data when calculating the monthly spreads.

ABRE originally chose unemployment data as it is one of the more timely pieces of data released by the government, as well as being released by geographies that generally correspond to the reported real estate market areas. Other data from various government agencies are released so late as to not be timely enough for meaningful projections.

So, what ABRE presents is our best estimate of next year’s sales which specifically excludes the possible impact of unpredictable governmental action or inaction, although even this seems to be having less impact as both the populace and markets begin to ignore political histrionics. For what it is worth, ABRE did test everyone’s favorite housing predictor, interest rates, and could not find any useful correlation.

In each case ABRE experiments with prior years data to see how well the prediction methodology would have worked. We tried using the last quarter sales of the prior year to “regress” against the full year sales of the projected (next) year. This is based on the same premise that recent data may be indicative of future results.

In each case, except Huntsville and Tuscaloosa, this methodology (last quarter of the year to the following year) resulted in greater historical accuracy in predicting and considerably better correlation numbers. We did exclude 2010 from the analysis since the last quarter of 2009 had abnormally low sales, (although the full year sales were as expected), due to the 1st time homeowners tax credit that pulled sales into earlier quarters and depressed the year end.

Complete spreadsheets with all data are available as public Google spreadsheets, which also include month by month projections, at http://goo.gl/jtJGW. ABRE presents these projections as a “work in progress” and as a tool for assessing how well current sales are performing against some level of “informed” expectation. You should not rely on them, but nonetheless ABRE hopes the projections are found useful. ABRE welcomes comments and suggestions for improvement.

About ABRE Analytics: Strategic collaboration is one of the keys to accelerating the flow of insights in the 21st century. The Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE) and Tom Brander has been successfully collaborating since 2009. The flow of ideas stemming from this relationship have led to solutions to better serve the Alabama real estate industry and consumers. ABRE (ACRE/Brander Real Estate) Analytics is designed to foster future creative thinking while also providing hands-on experience for student interns of ACRE.

About ACRE: ACRE’s core purpose is to advance the profession of real estate in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach. The Center, founded in 1996 by the Alabama Association of REALTORS, the Alabama Real Estate Commission and the Office of the Dean at UA’SCulverhouse College of Commerce, also acts as an industry liaison for the benefit of business school students pursuing a career in real estate. To learn more, please visit ourwebsite.

About Tom Brander: Tom Brander is a prominent real estate publisher. He produces The Rudulph/Brander Monthly Real Estate Report in the Birmingham, Huntsville and Baldwin County markets. His company, OSWCO, LLC (Open Software Company) is an authorized Google reseller. He has earned the Google apps sales consultant certification and the Google apps deployment certification, from Google. Tom also co-produces the ACRE quarterly Real Estate Sentiment Index and report in conjunction with ACRE. He is a designated ACRE Education Instructor and serves as a member of the ACRE Board of Trustees. To learn more, please visit http://oswco.com.

January Birmingham Residential Sales Up 14% from Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for January 2013

Sales in January declined by 21% to $132,100,460 from December’s $167,858,938, up a healthy 14% from last January’s $115,485,241. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the middle of the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results, although the year over year gains are meaningful.

Unit sales were down 14% to 824 in January from 963 in December, a decrease of 139. This is up 7% from January 2012 at 768. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 are not yet complete but should be shortly and will be forwarded as soon as completed. The January results are roughly in line with what we expect from the preliminary work on the forecast. New sales declined by 44 units to 87 homes this month from 131 in December and are off from 91 last year. Used sales declined 12% to 737 homes in January from 832 last month, a decrease of 95,  but up 42 from 695 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 15% lower at 8,781 vs. 10,384 last year and 9,086 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory solidly below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 782 in January from 953 in December, a decline of 171 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 62 for December from 67 in November. Shelby County permits went down to to 17 from 23 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 10 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply, although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 8 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in January shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,999 are lower than the 9,487 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,233, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory which drags down the overall months of inventory for all homes. There are fewer numbers of homes in the over $900,000 price range listed any time since early 2007, although months of inventory is still high due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 201 compared to last month at 172. The Used homes DOM was 146 in January, compared with 141 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $227,836 from $262,835 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $152,346 from $160,370 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

TWB 2/9/13

Birmingham November Real Estate Sales Up 11% Year Over Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for November 2012

Sales in November declined by 3% to $175,290,274 from October’s $180,739,461, up a healthy 11% from last November’s $158,075,509. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the beginning of slowest three months of the sales season. So it is best not to try to read too much into these results.

Unit sales were down 4% to 1,018 in November from 1,056 in October, a decrease of 38. This is up 5% from November 2011 at 972. This is 4% unfavorable to our projection of 1,055 sales expected for November and 7% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales declined 9% to 124 homes this month from 126 in October, a decrease of 2 units. Used sales declined 4% to 894 homes in November from 930 last month, a decrease of 36 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 16% lower at 9,193 vs. 10,993 last year and 10,257 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 764 in November from 993 in October, a decline of 229 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went up in Jefferson County to 77 for October from 67 in September. Shelby County permits went up to  to 28 from 18 (see website for details). Permits are (marginally)exceeding sales once again.

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 15 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in November shows 9 months, three months better than the 11 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,429 are lower than the 10,051 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,256, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 201 compared to last month at 181. The Used homes DOM was 148 in November, compared with 143 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $234,210 from $247,711 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $163,589 from $160,783 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

TWB 12/15/12

 

Birmingham October Sales up 19% From Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for October 2012

Sales in October declined by 5% to $175,248,097 from September’s $184,208,759, up a healthy 19% from last October’s $147,669,623. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward.

Unit sales were down 4% to 1,021 in October from 1,068 in September, a decrease of 47. This is up 2% from October 2011 at 998. This is 5% unfavorable to our projection of 1,085 sales expected for October and 8% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales declined 9% to 120 homes this month from 132 in September, a decrease of 12 units. Used sales declined 4% to 901 homes in October from 936 last month, a decrease of 35 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 15% lower at 9,692 vs. 11,369 last year and 10,476 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 765 in October from 1,010 in September, a decline of 245 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 67 for September from 90 in August. Shelby County permits went down to 18 from 27 (see website for details). First time in a while that it seems that sales are exceeding permits, which is a good sign.

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month, and better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 13 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-6 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in October shows 9 months, three months better than the 12 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,927 are lower than the 10,393 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,242, which makes up 31% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 181 compared to last month at 173. The Used homes DOM was 143 in October, compared with 145 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $246,255 from $267,803 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $161,706 from $159,037 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

The differences between our numbers and the Board of MLS numbers are  due to our taking in all the data in the MLS system while they report on a more concentrated area picked from the whole; therefore we have more of the surrounding rural areas, which are not as volatile.

TWB 11/10/12

Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales in August Very Strong

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for August 2012

Sales in August improved 12% to $252,563,959 from July’s $226,145,943, up 25%!! from last August’s $202,434,570. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward. The last time we have seen a sales increase from July to August was in 2005 and 2006.

Unit sales were up 16% to 1,376 in August from 1,190 in July, an increase of 186. This is up 12% from August 2011 at 1,227. This is about .5% unfavorable to our projection of 1,384 sales expected for August and 8% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales improved 14% to 136 homes this month from 119 in July, an increase of 17 units. Used sales improved 19% to 1,240 homes in August from 1,071 last month, an increase of 169 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 20% lower at 9,835 vs. 12,225 last year and 10,964 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is the 1st time in quite a while that total inventory is below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 727 in August from 1,018 in July, a decline of 291 units (Sect E p.3). Note though, that new homes reached a low of 875 for sale in December and a high of 1,018 last month.  Housing permits went up for Jefferson County to 99 for July from 90 in June. Shelby County permits declined to 13 from 25 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is deteriorating slightly. New homes are at 6 months supply this month with an improving sales pace, and better than last year at this time at 9 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes are at 14 months supply and deteriorating. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-6 month range. Higher price ranges ranges are one to two years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in August shows 9 months, four months better than the 13 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,108 are lower than the 11,222 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $47,000, which makes up 31% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 204 compared to last month at 212. The Used homes DOM was 138 in August, compared with 143 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are moving into the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $258,495 from $262,178 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $175,330 from $182,023 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: the Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

The differences between our numbers and the Board of MLS numbers are  due to our taking in all the data in the MLS system while they report on a more concentrated area picked from the whole; therefore we have more of the surrounding rural areas, which are not showing robust growth.

By: Tom Brander  9/15/12
Google

Birmingham July Sales Barely Ahead of Last Year

 

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for July 2012

Sales in July declined 13% to $219,842,611 from June’s $254,045,234, up 5% from last July’s $209,029,136. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward.

Unit sales were down 14% to 1,156 in July from 1,344 in June, a decrease of 188. This is down 7% from July 2011 at 1,241. This is 16% unfavorable to our projection of 1,370 sales expected for July and 10% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales declined 29% to 112 homes this month from 158 in June, a decrease of 46 units. Used sales declined 12% to 1,044 homes in July from 1,186 last month, a decrease of 142 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 20% lower at 10,144 vs. 12,604 last year and 11,023 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Still, there is less of a seasonal increase in listings than last year. Active New listings decreased to 700 in July from 1,064 in June, a decline of 364 units (Sect E p.3). Note though, that since new homes reached a low of 875 for sale in December and a high of 1,064 last month some caution is warranted.  Housing permits went down for Jefferson County to 90 for June from 100 in May. Shelby County permits remained about the same at 25 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is deteriorating slightly. New homes are at 6 months supply this month with an improving sales pace, and better than last year at this time at 9 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes are at 10 months supply and improving. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 6-7 month range. Higher price ranges ranges are over a year to four years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in July shows 10 months, four months better than the 14 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,444 are lower than the 11,553 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3). Interestingly the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $52,000, which makes up 31% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 212 compared to last month at 185. The Used homes DOM was 143 in July, compared with 136 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are moving into the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $265,957 from $256,157 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $182,045 from $180,078 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

The differences between our numbers and the Board of MLS numbers are  due to our taking in all the data in the MLS system while they report on a more concentrated area picked from the whole; therefore we have more of the surrounding rural areas, which are not showing robust growth.

TWB 8/12/12

 

Mid Year Real Estate Review, Alabama

The slides below contain material from the mid year review and comparisons with projections, for the remainder of the year.

Birmingham April Real Estate Sales Continue An Improving Trend

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for April 2012

Sales in April improved 10% to $189,845,478 from March’s $172,627,863, up 20% from last April’s $158,607,279. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales has tilted upward nicely.

Unit sales were up 5% to 1,175 in April from 1,123 in March, an increase of 52. This is up 15% from April 2011 at 1,026. This is 7% unfavorable to our projection of 1,264 sales expected for April and 9% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. It appears that the results are closing in on projections as the spring unfolds. New sales declined 4% to 108 homes this month from 113 in March, a decrease of 5 units. Used sales improved 6% to 1,067 homes in April from 1,010 last month, an increase of 57 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is dramatically lower at 10,177 vs. 12,884 last year and 10,627 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Still, there is less of a seasonal increase in listings than last year. Active New listings decreased to 774 in April from 1,108 in March, a decline of 334 units (Sect E p.3). Housing permits went up for Jefferson county to 120 for March up from 95 for February. (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is improving. New homes are at 6 months supply this month with a reduced sales pace, and better than last year at this time at 9 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply seems to be in a “normal” state. Under $100,000 New homes are at 14 months supply and improving. The New homes in the $100,000-$400,000 price range have an almost normal inventory level in the 6-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in April shows 10 months, four months better than 14 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,403 are lower than the 11,761 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3).

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 233 compared to last month at 194 . The Used homes DOM was 136 in April, compared with 146 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used Homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. The high months of inventory indicates that sellers, including bank owners, are still holding out for higher prices. Again: If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the most active sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $228,311 from $237,235 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $154,525 from $144,377 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used Homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. Average Home prices, new and used, have stabilized  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 5/10/12

Real Estate Professionals More Optimistic As Summer Approaches

Summary The survey projects expectations for the 2nd quarter of 2012. The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

The professional Real Estate community’s optimism continues to improve. The outlook for sales (yellow) this quarter is at the highest level recorded in the three years this survey has been conducted, 61, a five point improvement from last quarter. This is one point higher than last year at this time.

While all scores are up to new highs, the survey participants are still expecting continued declines in prices (47) and credit availability (48). The national score at 52, up from 48 last quarter, indicates that respondents are more constructive on the overall economic picture. The participants moved to positive sentiment on the statewide conditions at 59 up 5 points from last quarter. Sales expectations are more positive at 61 again up 5 points from last quarter. Inventory expectations improved to 52 from last quarter, the first time this indicator has been above 50 indicating improving conditions expected. Sellers are likely to be frustrated by pricing, and buyers will continue to have problems getting financing.

Regional Results:

The sales expectations for each region are within 1 point of each other from 60-61.

This quarter showed an improvement in all measures and in all regions. To some degree this is a seasonal phenomena, the levels are at high points in the three year history of the survey. Of course the three years of the survey have been some of the most challenging in recent times. None the less the results are encouraging, and taken together with the early results of actual sales in the 1st quarter and the new ABRE sales projections for the remainder of the year that ACRE/Brander has recently released all point to improving conditions.

Commercial market participants (the majority of the respondents are from the Birmingham market area) moved to projecting a continuing improving market this quarter at 59 this quarter vs. 54 last for sales expectations. Price expectations are still soft, at 48 vs 45 last quarter indicating pricing pressure. The score for credit availability has turned constructive, at 54 up from 48 points from last quarter.

North Region

North Alabamaexperienced a consistent improvement in all scores.  The total score of 53, up from 51, a 2 point improvement from last quarter. The Rural markets were an exception to the increasing sales expectations with a drop to 50 from 59 last quarter.

North Central Region

The North Central Region overall score improved to 54 from 50 last quarter, The sales score improved 6 points to 61. Inventory is continuing to improve at 53 with, pricing, and credit below the 50 mark at 47, and 49 respectively.

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants outlook for sales improved 6 points to 61.  Rural participants sales expectations improved 10 points to 60.

South Region

The Southern Region sales score improved 4 points to 60. Rural participants sales expectations improved 7 points to 57.

About the Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index and Survey:

Almost 500 professionals responded to the 2nd quarter 2012 survey which was conducted during the month of March 2012. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate now has the largest participation of any real estate survey. It provides important market insights. Full history and scores for each market segment are located here on the web http://goo.gl/n6o8O

The ACRE Leadership Council  determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu