Birmingham May Sales Very Strong and A Positive Outlook

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for May 2013

Dollar sales in May improved by 29% to $296,177,850 from April’s $230,177,850, up a healthy 31% from last May’s $226,665,171. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. We are in the main sales season and seeing impressive gains.

Birmingham May Projection to Actual

Increases in sales over our projections indicate a strengthening market. The greater increase in dollar sales than unit sales indicates an increase in the sales of higher end homes proportionally as well as a general strengthening in average prices.

Unit sales were up 14% to 1,504 in May from 1,315 in April, an increase of 189. This is up 16% from May 2012 at 1,294.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,399 sales for May. For May, actual sales were 8% higher than projections and 0.2% for the year. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).  New sales improved by 5 units to 138 homes this month from 132 in April and are even with 138 last year. Used sales improved 15% to 1,366 homes in May from 1,183 last month, an increase of 183,  and up 18% and 210 units from 1,156 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 9,419 vs. 10,993 last year and 10,122 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 785 in May from 1,098 in April, a decline of 313 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 104 for April from 115 in March. Shelby County permits went down to 25 from 37 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3). The New homes up to $700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range, except for the $400,000-500,000 price range which is at 10 months of supply. The $700,000-$800,000 price range are 14 months of supply. The over $900,000 new inventory is at 2 months (only one home). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in May shows 8 months, one month better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,634 are lower than the 10,131 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $400,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales. The market performance is highly area specific, so check the area charts.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 180 compared to last month at 221. The Used homes DOM was 135 in May, compared with 135 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $277,308 from $248,111 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $188,806 from $167,349 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2).

TWB 6/15/13

Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales Strong In April

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for April 2013

Dollar sales in April improved by 14% to $222,253,098 from March’s $195,775,825, up a healthy 14% from last April’s $195,717,473. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. We are at the early part of the busy sales season and are seeing good gains.

Unit sales were up 10% to 1,264 in April from 1,149 in March, an increase of 115. This is up 4% from April 2012 at 1,219.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,272 sales for April. For April, the projections are less than 1% higher than achieved for the month and 4% for the year. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).  New sales improved by 5 units to 128 homes this month from 123 in March and are up from 114 last year. Used sales improved 11% to 1,136 homes in April from 1,026 last month, an increase of 110,  and up 31 from 1,105 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 9,404 vs. 10,893 last year and 9,773 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 786 in April from 1,068 in March, a decline of 282 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went up in Jefferson County to 115 for March from 68 in February. Shelby County permits went up to 37 from 33 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3).There are 11 under $100,000 new homes active, a ten month supply. The New homes up to $700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range. The $700,000-$800,000r price range are twenty months of supply. The over $900,000 new inventory is at 6 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in April shows 9 months, one month better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,618 are lower than the 10,018 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $400,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 221 compared to last month at 193. The Used homes DOM was 135 in April, compared with 148 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $247,502 from $254,566 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $167,758 from $160,297 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 5/11/13

Huntsville April Real Estate Sales A Bit Soft In April

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market April 2013

April sales declined by .5% to $119,158,106 vs. March at $119,792,661. This was off 10% from last year’s $132,509,353. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up but showing some weakness. I suspect that sequester fears and reality are affecting the Huntsville market.

Total unit sales improved .6% to 790 in April vs. 785 in March, an increase of 83. This was 5% worse than last year at 829.

Our projections for ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 called for 817 sales in April with actual results 7% under that, and year to date volume is 4% lower than our projection. See here http://goo.gl/nytW8 for an article sumarizing the projections. Here is the spreadsheet with month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).

New sales decreased to 126 this month vs. 137 last month, down 11.

Used sales decreased to 664 this month vs. 648 last month, down 16 (Sect E  p.3).

Used inventory levels remain high this month at 12 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $400,000 have more than two years of inventory.

New home absorption is 10 months of inventory overall with last month at 11 months)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$500,000 is approximately 5-6 months. (Not bad!).

There continue to be a large number of housing permits issued in Huntsville city given the market conditions. For March there were 100, up from 83 in February (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,841 compared to last month’s 9,213, and below last year at this time at 8,961, with the reduction exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  The reduction in inventory is a positive thing. The inventory reduction has been good for the last 8 months; we are however seeing some signs of a spring increase.

Active New listings decreased from 1,651 last month to 1,409 in April, down 242. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 7,562 last month to 7,432 this month, down 130 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 7,620. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 165 vs. 200 days last month, with Used at 166 in April compared with 164 in March (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $234,235 vs. $241,395 last month. (Sect A p.2)

Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $135,007 vs. $133,830 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is going up but now showing some weakness. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 5/11/13

Birmingham, Central Alabama Residential Real Estate Sales Continue To Improve In March

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for March 2013

Dollar sales in March improved by 17% to $189,049,614 from February’s $161,712,660, up a healthy 8% from last March’s $174,568,674. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. We are at the beginning of the busy months of the sales season and are seeing gains in dollars sales while unit sales are somewhat constrained.

Unit sales were up 17% to 1,122 in March from 960 in February, an increase of 162. This is down 1% from March 2012 at 1,133. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,277 sales for March. This number will increase as late sales are reported. For now, the projections indicated 12% higher than achieved for the month and 7% for the year. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).  New sales improved by 17 units to 119 homes this month from 102 in February and are off from 115 last year. Used sales improved 17% to 1003 homes in March from 858 last month, an increase of 145,  and down 15 from 1,018 last year(Sect E p.3). For the 1st Quarter, unit sales were up by 3% for the 1st quarter as compared with the 1st quarter last year to 2,943 from 2,855 units last year.

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 8,969 vs. 10,526 last year and 10,458 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 765 in March from 1016 in February, a decline of 251 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 68 for February from 96 in January. Shelby County permits went up to 33 from 16 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). The New homes up to $700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply, although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 3 months (only one home). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in March shows 6 months, two months better than the 8 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,241 are lower than the 9,612 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $400,000 price range is beginning to climb somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 193 compared to last month at 197. The Used homes DOM was 148 in March, compared with 147 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $253,169 from $268,189 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $158,447 from $156,594 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 4/13/13

North Alabama Residential Real Estate Sales Heading Up For Spring

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market March 2013

March sales improved by 8% to $117,434,431 vs. February at $108,565,461. This was up 4% from last year’s $113,401,148. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up.

Total unit sales improved 12% to 768 in March vs. 685 in February, an increase of 83. This was 4% better than last year at 741.

Our projections for ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 called for 825 sales in Marchwith  actual results 7% under that, and year to date volume is 4% lower than our projection. See here http://goo.gl/nytW8 for an article sumarizing the projections. Here is the spreadsheet with month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom). For the quarter, unit sales were up 6% to 2,019 vs last year 1,903.

New sales decreased to 132 this month vs. 138 last month, down 6.

Used sales improved to 636 this month vs. 547 last month, up 89 (Sect E  p.3).

Used inventory levels remain high this month at 12 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $400,000 have more than two years of inventory.

New home absorption is 10 months of inventory overall with last month at 11 months)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$400,000 is approximately 5 months. (Not bad!).

There continue to be a large number of housing permits issued in Huntsville city given the market conditions. For February there were 83, (estimate from census dept.), down from 111 in December (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,558 compared to last month’s 8,823, and below last year at this time at 8,568, with the reduction exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  The reduction in inventory is a positive thing. The inventory reduction has been good for the last 8 months; we are however beginning to see some signs of a spring increase.

Active New listings decreased from 1,558 last month to 1,419 in March, down 139. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 7,265 last month to 7,139 this month, down 126 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 7,272. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 200 vs. 167 days last month, with Used at 164 in March compared with 163 in February (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $241,846 vs. $247,828 last month. (Sect A p.2)

Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $134,451 vs. $135,951 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is going up nicely. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 4/13/13

North Alabama February Sales Slightly Ahead of Last Year

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market February 2013

February sales improved by 19% to $103,565,733 vs. January at $87,011,244. This was up 16% from last year’s $89,518,072 The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up.

Total unit sales improved 16% to 652 in February vs. 564 in January, an increase of 88. This was 5% better than last year at 623. Our projections for ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 called for 690 sales in February so we are 5% under that, and year to date volume is 4% lower than our projection. See here http://goo.gl/nytW8 for an article sumarizing the projections. Here is the spreadsheet with month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).

New sales improved to 121 this month vs. 102 last month, up 20.
Used sales improved to 531 this month vs. 462 last month, up 69 (Sect E  p.3).

Used inventory levels remain high this month at 11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $200,000 are still over 12 months of inventory and over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory.

New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall with last month at 11 months)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$400,000 is approximately 5 months. (Not bad!).

There continue to be a large number of housing permits issued in Huntsville city given the market conditions. For January there were 111, (estimate from census dept.), up from 59 in December (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,262 compared to last month’s 8,543, and below last year at this time at 8,389, with the reduction exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  The reduction in inventory is a positive thing. The inventory reduction has been good for the last 8 months; we are however beginning to see some spring increase.

Active New listings decreased from 1,549 last month to 1,337 in February, down 212. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 6,994 last month to 6,925 this month, down 69 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 7,082. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 167 vs. 168 days last month, with Used at 163 in February compared with 162 in January (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $253,783 vs. $239,108 last month. (Sect A p.2)
Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $137,209 vs. $135,546 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is going up nicely. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 3/9/13

ABRE Analytics: 2013 Forecast for Alabama Residential Sales

Last year, ABRE Analytics, a collaborative research partnership consisting of the Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE) and Tom Brander, began studying the correlation between unemployment rates and future real estate sales projections in selected markets across the State of Alabama.

View full sizeABRE Analytics: 2013 residential sales projections for selected real estate markets. All rights reserved.

With the release of the metro unemployment data for January 2013, ABRE Analytics is pleased to present our 2nd annual forecast stemming from this methodology and related commentary.

Area	Full year 2011 Actual	Full year 2012 Proj	% chg from 2011	2012 Actual	Err % Diff to proj	Act 2012 % Diff to 2011	Forecast 2013	2013 F’cast to 2012 Act	Method Unemp or last Q
Statewide	36965	41,992	14%	39280	-6%	6%	41,799	6%	Last Q
Huntsville	8610	9,050	5%	9189	2%	7%	9,835	7%	Unemp
Birmingham	12468	14,550	17%	13514	-7%	8%	14,571	8%	Last Q
Auburn	1132	1,138	0%	1233	8%	9%	1,338	8%	Last Q
Tuscaloosa	1743	1,826	5%	1735	-5%	0%	1,935	12%	Unemp
Montgomery	2774	3,679	33%	3111	-15%	12%	3,342	7%	Last Q

Note: the error bars are at +/- 10%

The above table summarizes last year’s results and our expectations for 2013. These predictions assume no “major events”. As expected with any new trends model in its inaugural trial run, the 2012 predictions were mixed. Alabama residential saleswere up 5.9 percent in 2012.

In Huntsville, the forecast was within 2% of the full year 2012 results. In the aggregate, the results pointed in the right direction right, but with some error so this led the team to explore some alternative approaches for this year’s predictions to improve accuracy. In the markets with the greatest error we revised our methods to use the last quarter of 2012 sales via straight line linear regression instead of the unemployment rate. This method appears to be more accurate in most markets historically and hopefully going forward.

With these adjustments, above is the overview of what ABRE Analytics think might happen in 2013. As for the projection of a 12% increase for Tuscaloosa that is out of line with the other markets, ABRE’s opinion is that this may be a little too optimistic, but we have yet to figure out a consistent method to arrive at a better projection for Tuscaloosa in 2013. Of course, the local market’s near-term response to the tornado of April 27, 2011 certainly has a role with the difficulty in identifying a projection that could be presented with more confidence. Last year we experienced a similar issue with Montgomery, which prompted us to develop the alternative methodology of using last quarter sales for predictions.

The method ABRE used for 2012 was based entirely on the January unemployment rate for a market area. The assumption was that the January unemployment rate eliminated the effect of holiday temporary work and would reflect the mood of the populace towards buying and selling a new home in the upcoming year. A standard linear regression line yielded a better than 80% correlation since 2004 in all areas. The standard error however is somewhat high. This method also has the benefit of using two longer term trends, unemployment and home sales, and only at a single point per year, which eliminates a lot of “noise” in both series.

The seasonal regularity of sales is such that if you know the total sales for a year, dividing the total by the average proportion of the yearly sales attributable to a month has shown to be remarkably stable. Exceptions to the regularity do occur, such as fiscal cliff drama and the tax credit for first time home buyers in 2009. ABRE eliminates this data when calculating the monthly spreads.

ABRE originally chose unemployment data as it is one of the more timely pieces of data released by the government, as well as being released by geographies that generally correspond to the reported real estate market areas. Other data from various government agencies are released so late as to not be timely enough for meaningful projections.

So, what ABRE presents is our best estimate of next year’s sales which specifically excludes the possible impact of unpredictable governmental action or inaction, although even this seems to be having less impact as both the populace and markets begin to ignore political histrionics. For what it is worth, ABRE did test everyone’s favorite housing predictor, interest rates, and could not find any useful correlation.

In each case ABRE experiments with prior years data to see how well the prediction methodology would have worked. We tried using the last quarter sales of the prior year to “regress” against the full year sales of the projected (next) year. This is based on the same premise that recent data may be indicative of future results.

In each case, except Huntsville and Tuscaloosa, this methodology (last quarter of the year to the following year) resulted in greater historical accuracy in predicting and considerably better correlation numbers. We did exclude 2010 from the analysis since the last quarter of 2009 had abnormally low sales, (although the full year sales were as expected), due to the 1st time homeowners tax credit that pulled sales into earlier quarters and depressed the year end.

Complete spreadsheets with all data are available as public Google spreadsheets, which also include month by month projections, at http://goo.gl/jtJGW. ABRE presents these projections as a “work in progress” and as a tool for assessing how well current sales are performing against some level of “informed” expectation. You should not rely on them, but nonetheless ABRE hopes the projections are found useful. ABRE welcomes comments and suggestions for improvement.

About ABRE Analytics: Strategic collaboration is one of the keys to accelerating the flow of insights in the 21st century. The Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE) and Tom Brander has been successfully collaborating since 2009. The flow of ideas stemming from this relationship have led to solutions to better serve the Alabama real estate industry and consumers. ABRE (ACRE/Brander Real Estate) Analytics is designed to foster future creative thinking while also providing hands-on experience for student interns of ACRE.

About ACRE: ACRE’s core purpose is to advance the profession of real estate in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach. The Center, founded in 1996 by the Alabama Association of REALTORS, the Alabama Real Estate Commission and the Office of the Dean at UA’SCulverhouse College of Commerce, also acts as an industry liaison for the benefit of business school students pursuing a career in real estate. To learn more, please visit ourwebsite.

About Tom Brander: Tom Brander is a prominent real estate publisher. He produces The Rudulph/Brander Monthly Real Estate Report in the Birmingham, Huntsville and Baldwin County markets. His company, OSWCO, LLC (Open Software Company) is an authorized Google reseller. He has earned the Google apps sales consultant certification and the Google apps deployment certification, from Google. Tom also co-produces the ACRE quarterly Real Estate Sentiment Index and report in conjunction with ACRE. He is a designated ACRE Education Instructor and serves as a member of the ACRE Board of Trustees. To learn more, please visit http://oswco.com.

North Alabama January Real Estate Sales In-Line with Last Year

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market January 2013

January sales declined by 3% to $80,412,866 vs. December at $117,434,180. This was even with last year’s $80,657,398 The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up.

Total unit sales declined 21% to 524 in January vs. 669 in December, a decrease of 145. This was 3% lower than last year at 539.

Our projections for ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 are not yet complete; we will send them shortly. Early work looks quite encouraging for a continuation of the positive trends experienced last year.

New sales declined to 82 this month vs. 159 last month, down 77.
Used sales decreased to 442 this month vs. 510 last month, down 68 (Sect E  p.3).

Used inventory levels remain high this month at 11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $200,000 are still over 12 months of inventory and over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory.

New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall with last month at 10 months)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$400,000 is approximately 5 months. (Not bad!).

There continue to be a large number of housing permits issued in Huntsville city given the market conditions. For December there were 59, down from 64 in November (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 7,969 compared to last month’s 8,509, and below last year at this time at 8,339, with the reduction exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  The reduction in inventory is a positive thing. The inventory reduction has been good for the last 7 months; hopefully, spring will not bring a dramatic change.

Active New listings decreased from 1,536 last month to 1,329 in January, down 207. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 6,973 last month to 6,640 this month, down 333 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 6,986. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 168 vs. 150 days last month, with Used at 162 in January compared with 160 in December (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $239,861 vs. $257,564 last month. (Sect A p.2)
Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $137,430 vs. $149,964 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is going up nicely. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 2/9/13

Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI) for 1st Quarter 2013 Trends Upward

The survey projects expectations for the 1st quarter of 2013. The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

The professional Real Estate community’s optimism improved in two important measures, sales indications improved from 52 to 55 (expansion) and price expectations improved to the 50 level (neutral) for the 1^st time in the three years we have been doing the survey. Interestingly, availability of credit continues to be viewed negatively and deteriorating now at 44, down one point from last quarter.

Overall Indicators

The national score at 47, same as last quarter 49, indicates that respondents remain somewhat pessimistic about the overall economic picture. The participants remained positive on the statewide conditions at 53 same as last quarter. Inventory expectations declined to 49 from 52 indicating some increases of supply expected. Sellers are likely to be frustrated by pricing, and buyers will continue to have problems getting financing.

Regional Results:

The coastal region continued to remain the most optimistic in the state. On an overall basis all areas remain above 50, indicating expansion expected.

This quarter showed little change in expectations in all regions. The results are still encouraging, with overall measures in the expansion zone, at or over 50.

Commercial market participants (the majority of the respondents are from the Birmingham market area) remained projecting a neutral market this quarter (Total Stat) at 50 this quarter and dropping 6 points to 46 (contraction) for sales expectations. Price expectations are still soft, at 46 vs. 49 last quarter indicating pricing pressure. The score for credit availability is looking weaker, at 46 down from 49 points from last quarter.

North Region

North Alabama experienced a modest deterioration in most scores.  The total score of 47, down from 49, a 2 point decline from last quarter, and slightly below prior year 1st quarter scores. The sales outlook is modestly positive at 53 but with pricing pressure expected with a score of 45.

North Central Region

The North Central Region overall score improved to 50 from 49 last quarter, The sales score improved to 54 from 51. Inventory score moved to neutral at 50 from 52 with, pricing moving to 52 from 49, and credit at 45.

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants’ outlook for sales improved from 50 to 51.

South Region

The Southern Region sales score improved the most, 6 points to 61 the highest of the region scores.  Price expectations jumped 12 points to 55.

About the Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index and Survey:

More than 400 professionals responded to the 1st quarter 2013 survey which was conducted during the month of December 2012. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate now has the largest participation of any real estate survey. It provides important market insights. Full history and scores for each market segment are located here on the web http://goo.gl/5lt2G

The ACRE Leadership Council  determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu

Birmingham December Sales Finish Well, Total Sales Up 8% For The Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for December 2012

For 2012 Unit sales increased 8% to 13,472 from 12,468 last and are off 7% from our full year projection of 14,550. Total dollar sales for the year were up 15% to $2,307,752,868 from $2,002,963,782.

Sales in December declined by 9% to $163,401,188 from November’s $179,368,554, up a healthy 12% from last December’s $146,269,023. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the middle of the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results.

Unit sales were down 10% to 941 in December from 1,048 in November, a decrease of 107. This is down 3% from December 2011 at 970. This is 14% unfavorable to our projection of 1,099 sales expected for December and 7% unfavorable year to date (this will improve as late sales are recorded). The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales improved by one unit to 128 homes this month from 127 in November and off from 135 last year. Used sales declined 12% to 813 homes in December from 921 last month, a decrease of 108 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 16% lower at 8,519 vs. 10,174 last year and 9,943 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 736 in December from 997 in November, a decline of 261 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 67 for November from 77 in October. Shelby County permits went down to to 23 from 28 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 14 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply. although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 8 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in December shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,783 are lower than the 9,304 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,615, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes. There are fewer homes in the over $900,000 price range listed since early 2007 although months of inventory is still high due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 172 compared to last month at 201. The Used homes DOM was 141 in December, compared with 148 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $262,386 from $233,626 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $159,675 from $162,539 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.
TWB 1/12/13