Birmingham May Sales Very Strong and A Positive Outlook

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for May 2013

Dollar sales in May improved by 29% to $296,177,850 from April’s $230,177,850, up a healthy 31% from last May’s $226,665,171. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. We are in the main sales season and seeing impressive gains.

Birmingham May Projection to Actual

Increases in sales over our projections indicate a strengthening market. The greater increase in dollar sales than unit sales indicates an increase in the sales of higher end homes proportionally as well as a general strengthening in average prices.

Unit sales were up 14% to 1,504 in May from 1,315 in April, an increase of 189. This is up 16% from May 2012 at 1,294.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,399 sales for May. For May, actual sales were 8% higher than projections and 0.2% for the year. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).  New sales improved by 5 units to 138 homes this month from 132 in April and are even with 138 last year. Used sales improved 15% to 1,366 homes in May from 1,183 last month, an increase of 183,  and up 18% and 210 units from 1,156 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 9,419 vs. 10,993 last year and 10,122 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 785 in May from 1,098 in April, a decline of 313 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 104 for April from 115 in March. Shelby County permits went down to 25 from 37 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3). The New homes up to $700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range, except for the $400,000-500,000 price range which is at 10 months of supply. The $700,000-$800,000 price range are 14 months of supply. The over $900,000 new inventory is at 2 months (only one home). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in May shows 8 months, one month better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,634 are lower than the 10,131 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $400,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales. The market performance is highly area specific, so check the area charts.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 180 compared to last month at 221. The Used homes DOM was 135 in May, compared with 135 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $277,308 from $248,111 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $188,806 from $167,349 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2).

TWB 6/15/13

Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales Strong In April

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for April 2013

Dollar sales in April improved by 14% to $222,253,098 from March’s $195,775,825, up a healthy 14% from last April’s $195,717,473. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. We are at the early part of the busy sales season and are seeing good gains.

Unit sales were up 10% to 1,264 in April from 1,149 in March, an increase of 115. This is up 4% from April 2012 at 1,219.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,272 sales for April. For April, the projections are less than 1% higher than achieved for the month and 4% for the year. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).  New sales improved by 5 units to 128 homes this month from 123 in March and are up from 114 last year. Used sales improved 11% to 1,136 homes in April from 1,026 last month, an increase of 110,  and up 31 from 1,105 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 9,404 vs. 10,893 last year and 9,773 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 786 in April from 1,068 in March, a decline of 282 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went up in Jefferson County to 115 for March from 68 in February. Shelby County permits went up to 37 from 33 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3).There are 11 under $100,000 new homes active, a ten month supply. The New homes up to $700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range. The $700,000-$800,000r price range are twenty months of supply. The over $900,000 new inventory is at 6 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in April shows 9 months, one month better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,618 are lower than the 10,018 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $400,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 221 compared to last month at 193. The Used homes DOM was 135 in April, compared with 148 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $247,502 from $254,566 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $167,758 from $160,297 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 5/11/13

Birmingham, Central Alabama Residential Real Estate Sales Continue To Improve In March

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for March 2013

Dollar sales in March improved by 17% to $189,049,614 from February’s $161,712,660, up a healthy 8% from last March’s $174,568,674. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. We are at the beginning of the busy months of the sales season and are seeing gains in dollars sales while unit sales are somewhat constrained.

Unit sales were up 17% to 1,122 in March from 960 in February, an increase of 162. This is down 1% from March 2012 at 1,133. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,277 sales for March. This number will increase as late sales are reported. For now, the projections indicated 12% higher than achieved for the month and 7% for the year. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).  New sales improved by 17 units to 119 homes this month from 102 in February and are off from 115 last year. Used sales improved 17% to 1003 homes in March from 858 last month, an increase of 145,  and down 15 from 1,018 last year(Sect E p.3). For the 1st Quarter, unit sales were up by 3% for the 1st quarter as compared with the 1st quarter last year to 2,943 from 2,855 units last year.

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 8,969 vs. 10,526 last year and 10,458 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 765 in March from 1016 in February, a decline of 251 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 68 for February from 96 in January. Shelby County permits went up to 33 from 16 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). The New homes up to $700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply, although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 3 months (only one home). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in March shows 6 months, two months better than the 8 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,241 are lower than the 9,612 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $400,000 price range is beginning to climb somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 193 compared to last month at 197. The Used homes DOM was 148 in March, compared with 147 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $253,169 from $268,189 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $158,447 from $156,594 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 4/13/13

Birmingham Real Estate Sales Show Positive Trends in February

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for February 2013

Dollar sales in February improved by 15% to $156,249,103 from January’s $136,050,964, up a healthy 11% from last February’s $141,182,366. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. We are still in the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results, although the year over year gains are meaningful.

Unit sales were up 7% to 920 in February from 857 in January, an increase of 139. This is down 2% from February 2012 at 936. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1020 sales for February and of course the reported number will increase as late sales are reported. For now, the projections indicated 10% higher than achieved for the month and 6% for the year. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and here is the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).  New sales improved by 8 units to 99 homes this month from 91 in January and are off from 116 last year. Used sales improved 7% to 821 homes in February from 766 last month, an increase of 55,  and up 1 from 820 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 9,028 vs. 10,458 last year and 9,410 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory remaining below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 765 in February from 1016 in January, a decline of 251 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went way up in Jefferson County to 96 for January from 62 in December. Shelby County permits went down to 16 from 17 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 11 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply, although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 3 months (only one home). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in February shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,999 are lower than the 9,487 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,571, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory which drags down the overall months of inventory for all homes. The number of homes in the over $900,000 price range is beginning to climb from a low level but the months of inventory is still high  (14 months) due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 197 compared to last month at 201. The Used homes DOM was 147 in February, compared with 146 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $266,885 from $225,344 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $158,133 from $150,842 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 3/9/13

ABRE Analytics: 2013 Forecast for Alabama Residential Sales

Last year, ABRE Analytics, a collaborative research partnership consisting of the Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE) and Tom Brander, began studying the correlation between unemployment rates and future real estate sales projections in selected markets across the State of Alabama.

View full sizeABRE Analytics: 2013 residential sales projections for selected real estate markets. All rights reserved.

With the release of the metro unemployment data for January 2013, ABRE Analytics is pleased to present our 2nd annual forecast stemming from this methodology and related commentary.

Area	Full year 2011 Actual	Full year 2012 Proj	% chg from 2011	2012 Actual	Err % Diff to proj	Act 2012 % Diff to 2011	Forecast 2013	2013 F’cast to 2012 Act	Method Unemp or last Q
Statewide	36965	41,992	14%	39280	-6%	6%	41,799	6%	Last Q
Huntsville	8610	9,050	5%	9189	2%	7%	9,835	7%	Unemp
Birmingham	12468	14,550	17%	13514	-7%	8%	14,571	8%	Last Q
Auburn	1132	1,138	0%	1233	8%	9%	1,338	8%	Last Q
Tuscaloosa	1743	1,826	5%	1735	-5%	0%	1,935	12%	Unemp
Montgomery	2774	3,679	33%	3111	-15%	12%	3,342	7%	Last Q

Note: the error bars are at +/- 10%

The above table summarizes last year’s results and our expectations for 2013. These predictions assume no “major events”. As expected with any new trends model in its inaugural trial run, the 2012 predictions were mixed. Alabama residential saleswere up 5.9 percent in 2012.

In Huntsville, the forecast was within 2% of the full year 2012 results. In the aggregate, the results pointed in the right direction right, but with some error so this led the team to explore some alternative approaches for this year’s predictions to improve accuracy. In the markets with the greatest error we revised our methods to use the last quarter of 2012 sales via straight line linear regression instead of the unemployment rate. This method appears to be more accurate in most markets historically and hopefully going forward.

With these adjustments, above is the overview of what ABRE Analytics think might happen in 2013. As for the projection of a 12% increase for Tuscaloosa that is out of line with the other markets, ABRE’s opinion is that this may be a little too optimistic, but we have yet to figure out a consistent method to arrive at a better projection for Tuscaloosa in 2013. Of course, the local market’s near-term response to the tornado of April 27, 2011 certainly has a role with the difficulty in identifying a projection that could be presented with more confidence. Last year we experienced a similar issue with Montgomery, which prompted us to develop the alternative methodology of using last quarter sales for predictions.

The method ABRE used for 2012 was based entirely on the January unemployment rate for a market area. The assumption was that the January unemployment rate eliminated the effect of holiday temporary work and would reflect the mood of the populace towards buying and selling a new home in the upcoming year. A standard linear regression line yielded a better than 80% correlation since 2004 in all areas. The standard error however is somewhat high. This method also has the benefit of using two longer term trends, unemployment and home sales, and only at a single point per year, which eliminates a lot of “noise” in both series.

The seasonal regularity of sales is such that if you know the total sales for a year, dividing the total by the average proportion of the yearly sales attributable to a month has shown to be remarkably stable. Exceptions to the regularity do occur, such as fiscal cliff drama and the tax credit for first time home buyers in 2009. ABRE eliminates this data when calculating the monthly spreads.

ABRE originally chose unemployment data as it is one of the more timely pieces of data released by the government, as well as being released by geographies that generally correspond to the reported real estate market areas. Other data from various government agencies are released so late as to not be timely enough for meaningful projections.

So, what ABRE presents is our best estimate of next year’s sales which specifically excludes the possible impact of unpredictable governmental action or inaction, although even this seems to be having less impact as both the populace and markets begin to ignore political histrionics. For what it is worth, ABRE did test everyone’s favorite housing predictor, interest rates, and could not find any useful correlation.

In each case ABRE experiments with prior years data to see how well the prediction methodology would have worked. We tried using the last quarter sales of the prior year to “regress” against the full year sales of the projected (next) year. This is based on the same premise that recent data may be indicative of future results.

In each case, except Huntsville and Tuscaloosa, this methodology (last quarter of the year to the following year) resulted in greater historical accuracy in predicting and considerably better correlation numbers. We did exclude 2010 from the analysis since the last quarter of 2009 had abnormally low sales, (although the full year sales were as expected), due to the 1st time homeowners tax credit that pulled sales into earlier quarters and depressed the year end.

Complete spreadsheets with all data are available as public Google spreadsheets, which also include month by month projections, at http://goo.gl/jtJGW. ABRE presents these projections as a “work in progress” and as a tool for assessing how well current sales are performing against some level of “informed” expectation. You should not rely on them, but nonetheless ABRE hopes the projections are found useful. ABRE welcomes comments and suggestions for improvement.

About ABRE Analytics: Strategic collaboration is one of the keys to accelerating the flow of insights in the 21st century. The Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE) and Tom Brander has been successfully collaborating since 2009. The flow of ideas stemming from this relationship have led to solutions to better serve the Alabama real estate industry and consumers. ABRE (ACRE/Brander Real Estate) Analytics is designed to foster future creative thinking while also providing hands-on experience for student interns of ACRE.

About ACRE: ACRE’s core purpose is to advance the profession of real estate in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach. The Center, founded in 1996 by the Alabama Association of REALTORS, the Alabama Real Estate Commission and the Office of the Dean at UA’SCulverhouse College of Commerce, also acts as an industry liaison for the benefit of business school students pursuing a career in real estate. To learn more, please visit ourwebsite.

About Tom Brander: Tom Brander is a prominent real estate publisher. He produces The Rudulph/Brander Monthly Real Estate Report in the Birmingham, Huntsville and Baldwin County markets. His company, OSWCO, LLC (Open Software Company) is an authorized Google reseller. He has earned the Google apps sales consultant certification and the Google apps deployment certification, from Google. Tom also co-produces the ACRE quarterly Real Estate Sentiment Index and report in conjunction with ACRE. He is a designated ACRE Education Instructor and serves as a member of the ACRE Board of Trustees. To learn more, please visit http://oswco.com.

January Birmingham Residential Sales Up 14% from Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for January 2013

Sales in January declined by 21% to $132,100,460 from December’s $167,858,938, up a healthy 14% from last January’s $115,485,241. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the middle of the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results, although the year over year gains are meaningful.

Unit sales were down 14% to 824 in January from 963 in December, a decrease of 139. This is up 7% from January 2012 at 768. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 are not yet complete but should be shortly and will be forwarded as soon as completed. The January results are roughly in line with what we expect from the preliminary work on the forecast. New sales declined by 44 units to 87 homes this month from 131 in December and are off from 91 last year. Used sales declined 12% to 737 homes in January from 832 last month, a decrease of 95,  but up 42 from 695 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 15% lower at 8,781 vs. 10,384 last year and 9,086 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory solidly below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 782 in January from 953 in December, a decline of 171 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 62 for December from 67 in November. Shelby County permits went down to to 17 from 23 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 10 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply, although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 8 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in January shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,999 are lower than the 9,487 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,233, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory which drags down the overall months of inventory for all homes. There are fewer numbers of homes in the over $900,000 price range listed any time since early 2007, although months of inventory is still high due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 201 compared to last month at 172. The Used homes DOM was 146 in January, compared with 141 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $227,836 from $262,835 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $152,346 from $160,370 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

TWB 2/9/13

Birmingham December Sales Finish Well, Total Sales Up 8% For The Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for December 2012

For 2012 Unit sales increased 8% to 13,472 from 12,468 last and are off 7% from our full year projection of 14,550. Total dollar sales for the year were up 15% to $2,307,752,868 from $2,002,963,782.

Sales in December declined by 9% to $163,401,188 from November’s $179,368,554, up a healthy 12% from last December’s $146,269,023. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the middle of the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results.

Unit sales were down 10% to 941 in December from 1,048 in November, a decrease of 107. This is down 3% from December 2011 at 970. This is 14% unfavorable to our projection of 1,099 sales expected for December and 7% unfavorable year to date (this will improve as late sales are recorded). The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales improved by one unit to 128 homes this month from 127 in November and off from 135 last year. Used sales declined 12% to 813 homes in December from 921 last month, a decrease of 108 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 16% lower at 8,519 vs. 10,174 last year and 9,943 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 736 in December from 997 in November, a decline of 261 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 67 for November from 77 in October. Shelby County permits went down to to 23 from 28 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 14 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply. although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 8 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in December shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,783 are lower than the 9,304 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,615, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes. There are fewer homes in the over $900,000 price range listed since early 2007 although months of inventory is still high due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 172 compared to last month at 201. The Used homes DOM was 141 in December, compared with 148 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $262,386 from $233,626 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $159,675 from $162,539 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.
TWB 1/12/13

Birmingham November Real Estate Sales Up 11% Year Over Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for November 2012

Sales in November declined by 3% to $175,290,274 from October’s $180,739,461, up a healthy 11% from last November’s $158,075,509. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the beginning of slowest three months of the sales season. So it is best not to try to read too much into these results.

Unit sales were down 4% to 1,018 in November from 1,056 in October, a decrease of 38. This is up 5% from November 2011 at 972. This is 4% unfavorable to our projection of 1,055 sales expected for November and 7% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales declined 9% to 124 homes this month from 126 in October, a decrease of 2 units. Used sales declined 4% to 894 homes in November from 930 last month, a decrease of 36 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 16% lower at 9,193 vs. 10,993 last year and 10,257 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 764 in November from 993 in October, a decline of 229 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went up in Jefferson County to 77 for October from 67 in September. Shelby County permits went up to  to 28 from 18 (see website for details). Permits are (marginally)exceeding sales once again.

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 15 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in November shows 9 months, three months better than the 11 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,429 are lower than the 10,051 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,256, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 201 compared to last month at 181. The Used homes DOM was 148 in November, compared with 143 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $234,210 from $247,711 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $163,589 from $160,783 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

TWB 12/15/12

 

Birmingham October Sales up 19% From Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for October 2012

Sales in October declined by 5% to $175,248,097 from September’s $184,208,759, up a healthy 19% from last October’s $147,669,623. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward.

Unit sales were down 4% to 1,021 in October from 1,068 in September, a decrease of 47. This is up 2% from October 2011 at 998. This is 5% unfavorable to our projection of 1,085 sales expected for October and 8% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales declined 9% to 120 homes this month from 132 in September, a decrease of 12 units. Used sales declined 4% to 901 homes in October from 936 last month, a decrease of 35 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 15% lower at 9,692 vs. 11,369 last year and 10,476 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 765 in October from 1,010 in September, a decline of 245 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 67 for September from 90 in August. Shelby County permits went down to 18 from 27 (see website for details). First time in a while that it seems that sales are exceeding permits, which is a good sign.

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month, and better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 13 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-6 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in October shows 9 months, three months better than the 12 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,927 are lower than the 10,393 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,242, which makes up 31% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 181 compared to last month at 173. The Used homes DOM was 143 in October, compared with 145 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $246,255 from $267,803 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $161,706 from $159,037 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

The differences between our numbers and the Board of MLS numbers are  due to our taking in all the data in the MLS system while they report on a more concentrated area picked from the whole; therefore we have more of the surrounding rural areas, which are not as volatile.

TWB 11/10/12

Birmingham Residential Real Estate Sales Fall Off in September

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for September 2012

Sales in September declined sharply by 30% to $181,268,948 from August’s $257,339,430, down 3% from last September’s $186,720,876. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward.

Unit sales were down 26% to 1,048 in September from 1,407 in August, a decrease of 359. This is down 10% from September 2011 at 1,166. This is 16% unfavorable to our projection of 1,255 sales expected for September and 8% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales declined 10% to 131 homes this month from 146 in August, a decrease of 15 units. Used sales declined 27% to 917 homes in September from 1,261 last month, a decrease of 344 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 16% lower at 9,753 vs. 11,624 last year and 10,658 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 747 in September from 998 in August, a decline of 251 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 90 for August from 99 in July. Shelby County permits went up to 27 from 23 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month, and better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 13 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-6 month range. Higher price ranges ranges are one to two years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in September shows 9 months, three months better than the 12 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,006 are lower than the 10,662 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $44,686, which makes up 31% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 173 compared to last month at 204. The Used homes DOM was 145 in September, compared with 138 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $268,219 from $257,337 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $159,359 from $174,281 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: the Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

The differences between our numbers and the Board of MLS numbers are  due to our taking in all the data in the MLS system while they report on a more concentrated area picked from the whole; therefore we have more of the surrounding rural areas, which are not as volatile.

TWB 10/13/12