Alabama Coastal Sales Continue Strong In May

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of May 2013

Sales dollars climbed 19% in May to $131,734,194 from April’s $110,343,519. This is a healthy 8% above May last year at $122,483,885. (Sect A p.2). This is the third highest May total after 2004 and 2005.This continues the great start to the main spring/summer selling season. The 12 month moving average line of sales has continued to point up steadily for two years now. Inventories are trending down.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 15% at 568 this month vs. last month at 493, which is up 11% from last year’s 511. In spite of the substantially improved sales climate, it is important to point out that the inventories of homes over $300,000 remains at over a 12 month supply.

Used Home sales improved 12% to 511 this month vs. 456 last month, which is up 10% from last year’s 463 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 57 this month vs 37 last month compared with 48 last year. Increasing sales of New Homes is indicative of a recovering market.

New listings for New homes increased to 63 from 61 in April. Used homes New listings increased to 511 from 456 in April with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In May, there were 3,439 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,994 in April. The New home market, which peaked in May 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 322.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 9 months of inventory for May vs. 10 in April. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for May vs. 11 in April. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in May 2008 to 9 months this May. As I observe above though, the inventory for higher priced homes remains high.

Average sales price for all homes have been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $222,465 from $245,923 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $232,982 from $222,027 in April. The price trend is up for the year.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in May was 201 this month vs. 156 last month. Days On Market for Used was 168 this month vs. 166 last month.

We see improvement in the second home market, which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength. While there is still a lot of inventory particularly in the upper price ranges, sales are continuing to improve, I think the situation on the coast has turned quite positive.

TWB 6/15/2013

Alabama Coastal Real Estate Healthy in April

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of April 2013

Sales dollars climbed 5% in April to $107,542,409 from March’s $102,236,048. This is a healthy 22% above April last year at $88,350,886. (Sect A p.2). This is the third highest April total after 2004 and 2005.This continues the great start to the main spring/summer selling season. The 12 month moving average line of sales has continued to point up steadily for two years now. Inventories are trending down.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 1% at 481 this month vs. last month at 476, which is up 17% from last year’s 410. In spite of the substantially improved sales climate, it is important to point out that the inventories of homes over $300,000 remains at over a 12 month supply.

Used Home sales improved 3% to 445 this month vs. 431 last month, which is up 19% from last year’s 375 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 36 this month vs 45 last month compared with 35 last year. Increasing sales of New Homes is indicative of a recovering market.

New listings for New homes decreased to 61 from 67 in March. Used homes New listings decreased to 779 from 846 in March with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In April, there were 3,447 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,845 in March. The New home market, which peaked in April 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 332.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 9 months of inventory for April vs. 10 in March. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for April vs. 11 in March. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in April 2008 to 9 months this April. As I observe above though, the inventory for higher priced homes remains high.

Average sales price for all homes have been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices increased to $247,198 from $229,031 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $221,670 from $213,294 in March. The price trend is up for the year.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in April was 156 this month vs. 200 last month. Days On Market for Used was 166 this month vs. 180 last month.

We see improvement in the second home market, which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength. While there is still a lot of inventory particularly in the upper price ranges, sales are continuing to improve, I think the situation on the coast has turned quite positive.

TWB 5/11/2013

North Alabama January Real Estate Sales In-Line with Last Year

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market January 2013

January sales declined by 3% to $80,412,866 vs. December at $117,434,180. This was even with last year’s $80,657,398 The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up.

Total unit sales declined 21% to 524 in January vs. 669 in December, a decrease of 145. This was 3% lower than last year at 539.

Our projections for ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 are not yet complete; we will send them shortly. Early work looks quite encouraging for a continuation of the positive trends experienced last year.

New sales declined to 82 this month vs. 159 last month, down 77.
Used sales decreased to 442 this month vs. 510 last month, down 68 (Sect E  p.3).

Used inventory levels remain high this month at 11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $200,000 are still over 12 months of inventory and over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory.

New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall with last month at 10 months)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$400,000 is approximately 5 months. (Not bad!).

There continue to be a large number of housing permits issued in Huntsville city given the market conditions. For December there were 59, down from 64 in November (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 7,969 compared to last month’s 8,509, and below last year at this time at 8,339, with the reduction exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  The reduction in inventory is a positive thing. The inventory reduction has been good for the last 7 months; hopefully, spring will not bring a dramatic change.

Active New listings decreased from 1,536 last month to 1,329 in January, down 207. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 6,973 last month to 6,640 this month, down 333 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 6,986. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 168 vs. 150 days last month, with Used at 162 in January compared with 160 in December (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $239,861 vs. $257,564 last month. (Sect A p.2)
Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $137,430 vs. $149,964 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is going up nicely. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 2/9/13

Coastal Alabama Real Estate Starts Strong In January

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of January 2013

Sales dollars decreased 25% in January to $59,876,728 from December’s $80,189,682. This is a remarkable 23% above January last year at $48,473,756. (Sect A p.2). This is a solid performance in the normally slowest month. The 12 month moving average line of sales has continued to point up steadily for two years now. Inventories are trending down.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off 16% at 303 this month vs. last month at 362, which is up 10% from last year’s 276. The year to year comparison remains encouraging.  At the high end, the $900,000 and over sales were 4 this month compared with 5 last year for the same month.

Used Home sales declined 14% to 278 this month vs. 323 last month, which is up 14% from last year’s 244 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 25 this month vs 39 last month compared with 32 last year. Increasing sales of New Homes is indicative of a recovering market.

New listings for New homes declined to 33 from 66 in December. Used homes New listings jumped to 739 from 414 in December with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In January, there were 3,131 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,420 in December. The New home market, which peaked in January 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 299.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 8 months of inventory for January vs. 10 in December. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for January vs. 10 in December. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in January 2008 to 9 months this January.

Average sales price for all homes have been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $221,042 from $263,796 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $195,506 from $216,414 in December.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in January was 205 this month vs. 143 last month. Days On Market for Used was 171 this month vs. 181 last month.

We see improvement in the second home market, which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength. While there is still a lot of inventory, I think the situation on the coast has turned quite positive.

TWB 2/9/2013

Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI) for 1st Quarter 2013 Trends Upward

The survey projects expectations for the 1st quarter of 2013. The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

The professional Real Estate community’s optimism improved in two important measures, sales indications improved from 52 to 55 (expansion) and price expectations improved to the 50 level (neutral) for the 1^st time in the three years we have been doing the survey. Interestingly, availability of credit continues to be viewed negatively and deteriorating now at 44, down one point from last quarter.

Overall Indicators

The national score at 47, same as last quarter 49, indicates that respondents remain somewhat pessimistic about the overall economic picture. The participants remained positive on the statewide conditions at 53 same as last quarter. Inventory expectations declined to 49 from 52 indicating some increases of supply expected. Sellers are likely to be frustrated by pricing, and buyers will continue to have problems getting financing.

Regional Results:

The coastal region continued to remain the most optimistic in the state. On an overall basis all areas remain above 50, indicating expansion expected.

This quarter showed little change in expectations in all regions. The results are still encouraging, with overall measures in the expansion zone, at or over 50.

Commercial market participants (the majority of the respondents are from the Birmingham market area) remained projecting a neutral market this quarter (Total Stat) at 50 this quarter and dropping 6 points to 46 (contraction) for sales expectations. Price expectations are still soft, at 46 vs. 49 last quarter indicating pricing pressure. The score for credit availability is looking weaker, at 46 down from 49 points from last quarter.

North Region

North Alabama experienced a modest deterioration in most scores.  The total score of 47, down from 49, a 2 point decline from last quarter, and slightly below prior year 1st quarter scores. The sales outlook is modestly positive at 53 but with pricing pressure expected with a score of 45.

North Central Region

The North Central Region overall score improved to 50 from 49 last quarter, The sales score improved to 54 from 51. Inventory score moved to neutral at 50 from 52 with, pricing moving to 52 from 49, and credit at 45.

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants’ outlook for sales improved from 50 to 51.

South Region

The Southern Region sales score improved the most, 6 points to 61 the highest of the region scores.  Price expectations jumped 12 points to 55.

About the Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index and Survey:

More than 400 professionals responded to the 1st quarter 2013 survey which was conducted during the month of December 2012. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate now has the largest participation of any real estate survey. It provides important market insights. Full history and scores for each market segment are located here on the web
http://goo.gl/5lt2G

The ACRE Leadership Council  determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu

Birmingham December Sales Finish Well, Total Sales Up 8% For The Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for December 2012

For 2012 Unit sales increased 8% to 13,472 from 12,468 last and are off 7% from our full year projection of 14,550. Total dollar sales for the year were up 15% to $2,307,752,868 from $2,002,963,782.

Sales in December declined by 9% to $163,401,188 from November’s $179,368,554, up a healthy 12% from last December’s $146,269,023. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the middle of the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results.

Unit sales were down 10% to 941 in December from 1,048 in November, a decrease of 107. This is down 3% from December 2011 at 970. This is 14% unfavorable to our projection of 1,099 sales expected for December and 7% unfavorable year to date (this will improve as late sales are recorded). The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here
http://goo.gl/WFHrO
along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales improved by one unit to 128 homes this month from 127 in November and off from 135 last year. Used sales declined 12% to 813 homes in December from 921 last month, a decrease of 108 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 16% lower at 8,519 vs. 10,174 last year and 9,943 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 736 in December from 997 in November, a decline of 261 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 67 for November from 77 in October. Shelby County permits went down to to 23 from 28 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 14 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply. although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 8 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in December shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,783 are lower than the 9,304 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,615, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes. There are fewer homes in the over $900,000 price range listed since early 2007 although months of inventory is still high due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 172 compared to last month at 201. The Used homes DOM was 141 in December, compared with 148 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $262,386 from $233,626 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $159,675 from $162,539 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.
TWB 1/12/13

Huntsville December Sales Healthy in December

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market December 2012

Full year unit sales were 9,176 up 6% from last year’s 8,624  and 1% favorable to our beginning year projection of 9050. Total Dollars sales were up 8% to $1,496,095,829 from $1,383,326,336 last year.

December sales declined by 4% to $116,069,280 vs. November at $121,522,339. This was 5% above last year’s $110,904,366 The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up.

Total unit sales declined 8% to 662 in December vs. 720 in November, a decrease of 58. This was 5% lower than last year at 698.

Note that our projection for December was 651 in sales, so the actual results were 2% favorable for the month and 1% favorable year to date. Full spreadsheets and projections, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate), are available at  
http://goo.gl/WFHrO
) .

New sales improved to 157 this month vs. 147 last month, up 10.
Used sales decreased to 505 this month vs. 573 last month, down 68 (Sect E  p.3).

Used inventory levels remain high this month at 11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $200,000 are still over 12 months of inventory and over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory.

New home absorption is 10 months of inventory overall, (with last month at 10 months) (E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$400,000 is approximately 6 months. (Not bad!).

There continue to be a large number of housing permits issued in Huntsville city given the market conditions. For November there were 64, down from 97 in October(chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 7,906 compared to last month’s 8,684, and below last year at this time at 8,365, with the reduction exaggerated due to month-end expirations.
(Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  The reduction in inventory is a good thing. But we must note that the inventory level has remained fairly constant over the last few months, stopping the decline.

Active New listings decreased from 1,423 last month to 1,311 in December, down 112. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 7,261 last month to 6,595 this month, down 666 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 6,963. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 150 vs. 153 days last month, with Used at 160 in December compared with 152 in November (Sect A p.18). Sellers, including bank owners, who do not adjust to the new price reality, contribute to the buildup of inventory.

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $258,141 vs. $244,308 last month. (Sect A p.2)
Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $149,586 vs. $149,405 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is once again showing some stability. New home average price seems to be showing some positive direction.
TWB 1/12/13

Birmingham November Real Estate Sales Up 11% Year Over Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for November 2012

Sales in November declined by 3% to $175,290,274 from October’s $180,739,461, up a healthy 11% from last November’s $158,075,509. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the beginning of slowest three months of the sales season. So it is best not to try to read too much into these results.

Unit sales were down 4% to 1,018 in November from 1,056 in October, a decrease of 38. This is up 5% from November 2011 at 972. This is 4% unfavorable to our projection of 1,055 sales expected for November and 7% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here
http://goo.gl/WFHrO
along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales declined 9% to 124 homes this month from 126 in October, a decrease of 2 units. Used sales declined 4% to 894 homes in November from 930 last month, a decrease of 36 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 16% lower at 9,193 vs. 10,993 last year and 10,257 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 764 in November from 993 in October, a decline of 229 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went up in Jefferson County to 77 for October from 67 in September. Shelby County permits went up to  to 28 from 18 (see website for details). Permits are (marginally)exceeding sales once again.

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 15 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in November shows 9 months, three months better than the 11 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,429 are lower than the 10,051 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,256, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 201 compared to last month at 181. The Used homes DOM was 148 in November, compared with 143 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $234,210 from $247,711 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $163,589 from $160,783 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

TWB 12/15/12

 

Birmingham Residential Real Estate Sales Fall Off in September

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for September 2012

Sales in September declined sharply by 30% to $181,268,948 from August’s $257,339,430, down 3% from last September’s $186,720,876. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward.

Unit sales were down 26% to 1,048 in September from 1,407 in August, a decrease of 359. This is down 10% from September 2011 at 1,166. This is 16% unfavorable to our projection of 1,255 sales expected for September and 8% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here
http://goo.gl/WFHrO
along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales declined 10% to 131 homes this month from 146 in August, a decrease of 15 units. Used sales declined 27% to 917 homes in September from 1,261 last month, a decrease of 344 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 16% lower at 9,753 vs. 11,624 last year and 10,658 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 747 in September from 998 in August, a decline of 251 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 90 for August from 99 in July. Shelby County permits went up to 27 from 23 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month, and better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 13 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-6 month range. Higher price ranges ranges are one to two years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in September shows 9 months, three months better than the 12 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,006 are lower than the 10,662 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $44,686, which makes up 31% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 173 compared to last month at 204. The Used homes DOM was 145 in September, compared with 138 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $268,219 from $257,337 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $159,359 from $174,281 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: the Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

The differences between our numbers and the Board of MLS numbers are  due to our taking in all the data in the MLS system while they report on a more concentrated area picked from the whole; therefore we have more of the surrounding rural areas, which are not as volatile.

TWB 10/13/12

 

Google Apps Sales and Support In Alabama

Google Apps is a great way to cut costs and improve service for Real Estate Companies as well as most other types of companies of all sizes.

If you are using an Exchange server-based solution, we can, on average, save about 80% of your direct costs, as well as providing much better tools for your staff/employees and agents. Conversion is fast and easy, you don’t change existing e-mail addresses. Some 5,000 companies a day are signing up!

Please see this short clip for an introduction to Google Apps.

For more details about Google apps including pricing, please take a look at the Google Apps Showcase here.

As many of you may know I offer a variety of software services via my company, OSWCO (which stands for Open SoftWare Company).

Recently, OSWCO became an Authorized Reseller for Google Apps, as well as receiving a Google Certified Deployment Specialist certification.

Please contact me for more information.

Tom Brander

by: Tom Brander