Birmingham Area Real Estate Sales Strong In April

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for April 2013

Dollar sales in April improved by 14% to $222,253,098 from March’s $195,775,825, up a healthy 14% from last April’s $195,717,473. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. We are at the early part of the busy sales season and are seeing good gains.

Unit sales were up 10% to 1,264 in April from 1,149 in March, an increase of 115. This is up 4% from April 2012 at 1,219.This number will increase as late sales are reported. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1,272 sales for April. For April, the projections are less than 1% higher than achieved for the month and 4% for the year. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).  New sales improved by 5 units to 128 homes this month from 123 in March and are up from 114 last year. Used sales improved 11% to 1,136 homes in April from 1,026 last month, an increase of 110,  and up 31 from 1,105 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 9,404 vs. 10,893 last year and 9,773 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 786 in April from 1,068 in March, a decline of 282 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went up in Jefferson County to 115 for March from 68 in February. Shelby County permits went up to 37 from 33 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 7 months (Sect E p.3).There are 11 under $100,000 new homes active, a ten month supply. The New homes up to $700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range. The $700,000-$800,000r price range are twenty months of supply. The over $900,000 new inventory is at 6 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in April shows 9 months, one month better than 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,618 are lower than the 10,018 last year (Sect E p.3). The number of homes listed in the over $400,000 price range has been climbing somewhat faster than sales, resulting in some upward drift in the months of sales.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 221 compared to last month at 193. The Used homes DOM was 135 in April, compared with 148 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $247,502 from $254,566 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $167,758 from $160,297 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 5/11/13

Birmingham Real Estate Sales Show Positive Trends in February

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for February 2013

Dollar sales in February improved by 15% to $156,249,103 from January’s $136,050,964, up a healthy 11% from last February’s $141,182,366. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. We are still in the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results, although the year over year gains are meaningful.

Unit sales were up 7% to 920 in February from 857 in January, an increase of 139. This is down 2% from February 2012 at 936. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 projected 1020 sales for February and of course the reported number will increase as late sales are reported. For now, the projections indicated 10% higher than achieved for the month and 6% for the year. Please see here for a summary of the projections http://goo.gl/nytW8 and here is the spreadsheet with details and month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).  New sales improved by 8 units to 99 homes this month from 91 in January and are off from 116 last year. Used sales improved 7% to 821 homes in February from 766 last month, an increase of 55,  and up 1 from 820 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 14% lower at 9,028 vs. 10,458 last year and 9,410 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory remaining below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 765 in February from 1016 in January, a decline of 251 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went way up in Jefferson County to 96 for January from 62 in December. Shelby County permits went down to 16 from 17 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 11 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 5-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply, although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 3 months (only one home). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in February shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,999 are lower than the 9,487 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,571, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory which drags down the overall months of inventory for all homes. The number of homes in the over $900,000 price range is beginning to climb from a low level but the months of inventory is still high  (14 months) due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 197 compared to last month at 201. The Used homes DOM was 147 in February, compared with 146 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes increased to $266,885 from $225,344 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales price for Sold Used homes increased to $158,133 from $150,842 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 3/9/13

North Alabama February Sales Slightly Ahead of Last Year

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market February 2013

February sales improved by 19% to $103,565,733 vs. January at $87,011,244. This was up 16% from last year’s $89,518,072 The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up.

Total unit sales improved 16% to 652 in February vs. 564 in January, an increase of 88. This was 5% better than last year at 623. Our projections for ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 called for 690 sales in February so we are 5% under that, and year to date volume is 4% lower than our projection. See here http://goo.gl/nytW8 for an article sumarizing the projections. Here is the spreadsheet with month by month projections by area http://goo.gl/GEYWa (see the tabs on the bottom).

New sales improved to 121 this month vs. 102 last month, up 20.
Used sales improved to 531 this month vs. 462 last month, up 69 (Sect E  p.3).

Used inventory levels remain high this month at 11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $200,000 are still over 12 months of inventory and over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory.

New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall with last month at 11 months)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$400,000 is approximately 5 months. (Not bad!).

There continue to be a large number of housing permits issued in Huntsville city given the market conditions. For January there were 111, (estimate from census dept.), up from 59 in December (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,262 compared to last month’s 8,543, and below last year at this time at 8,389, with the reduction exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  The reduction in inventory is a positive thing. The inventory reduction has been good for the last 8 months; we are however beginning to see some spring increase.

Active New listings decreased from 1,549 last month to 1,337 in February, down 212. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 6,994 last month to 6,925 this month, down 69 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 7,082. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 167 vs. 168 days last month, with Used at 163 in February compared with 162 in January (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $253,783 vs. $239,108 last month. (Sect A p.2)
Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $137,209 vs. $135,546 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is going up nicely. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 3/9/13

ABRE Analytics: 2013 Forecast for Alabama Residential Sales

Last year, ABRE Analytics, a collaborative research partnership consisting of the Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE) and Tom Brander, began studying the correlation between unemployment rates and future real estate sales projections in selected markets across the State of Alabama.

View full sizeABRE Analytics: 2013 residential sales projections for selected real estate markets. All rights reserved.

With the release of the metro unemployment data for January 2013, ABRE Analytics is pleased to present our 2nd annual forecast stemming from this methodology and related commentary.

Area	Full year 2011 Actual	Full year 2012 Proj	% chg from 2011	2012 Actual	Err % Diff to proj	Act 2012 % Diff to 2011	Forecast 2013	2013 F’cast to 2012 Act	Method Unemp or last Q
Statewide	36965	41,992	14%	39280	-6%	6%	41,799	6%	Last Q
Huntsville	8610	9,050	5%	9189	2%	7%	9,835	7%	Unemp
Birmingham	12468	14,550	17%	13514	-7%	8%	14,571	8%	Last Q
Auburn	1132	1,138	0%	1233	8%	9%	1,338	8%	Last Q
Tuscaloosa	1743	1,826	5%	1735	-5%	0%	1,935	12%	Unemp
Montgomery	2774	3,679	33%	3111	-15%	12%	3,342	7%	Last Q

Note: the error bars are at +/- 10%

The above table summarizes last year’s results and our expectations for 2013. These predictions assume no “major events”. As expected with any new trends model in its inaugural trial run, the 2012 predictions were mixed. Alabama residential saleswere up 5.9 percent in 2012.

In Huntsville, the forecast was within 2% of the full year 2012 results. In the aggregate, the results pointed in the right direction right, but with some error so this led the team to explore some alternative approaches for this year’s predictions to improve accuracy. In the markets with the greatest error we revised our methods to use the last quarter of 2012 sales via straight line linear regression instead of the unemployment rate. This method appears to be more accurate in most markets historically and hopefully going forward.

With these adjustments, above is the overview of what ABRE Analytics think might happen in 2013. As for the projection of a 12% increase for Tuscaloosa that is out of line with the other markets, ABRE’s opinion is that this may be a little too optimistic, but we have yet to figure out a consistent method to arrive at a better projection for Tuscaloosa in 2013. Of course, the local market’s near-term response to the tornado of April 27, 2011 certainly has a role with the difficulty in identifying a projection that could be presented with more confidence. Last year we experienced a similar issue with Montgomery, which prompted us to develop the alternative methodology of using last quarter sales for predictions.

The method ABRE used for 2012 was based entirely on the January unemployment rate for a market area. The assumption was that the January unemployment rate eliminated the effect of holiday temporary work and would reflect the mood of the populace towards buying and selling a new home in the upcoming year. A standard linear regression line yielded a better than 80% correlation since 2004 in all areas. The standard error however is somewhat high. This method also has the benefit of using two longer term trends, unemployment and home sales, and only at a single point per year, which eliminates a lot of “noise” in both series.

The seasonal regularity of sales is such that if you know the total sales for a year, dividing the total by the average proportion of the yearly sales attributable to a month has shown to be remarkably stable. Exceptions to the regularity do occur, such as fiscal cliff drama and the tax credit for first time home buyers in 2009. ABRE eliminates this data when calculating the monthly spreads.

ABRE originally chose unemployment data as it is one of the more timely pieces of data released by the government, as well as being released by geographies that generally correspond to the reported real estate market areas. Other data from various government agencies are released so late as to not be timely enough for meaningful projections.

So, what ABRE presents is our best estimate of next year’s sales which specifically excludes the possible impact of unpredictable governmental action or inaction, although even this seems to be having less impact as both the populace and markets begin to ignore political histrionics. For what it is worth, ABRE did test everyone’s favorite housing predictor, interest rates, and could not find any useful correlation.

In each case ABRE experiments with prior years data to see how well the prediction methodology would have worked. We tried using the last quarter sales of the prior year to “regress” against the full year sales of the projected (next) year. This is based on the same premise that recent data may be indicative of future results.

In each case, except Huntsville and Tuscaloosa, this methodology (last quarter of the year to the following year) resulted in greater historical accuracy in predicting and considerably better correlation numbers. We did exclude 2010 from the analysis since the last quarter of 2009 had abnormally low sales, (although the full year sales were as expected), due to the 1st time homeowners tax credit that pulled sales into earlier quarters and depressed the year end.

Complete spreadsheets with all data are available as public Google spreadsheets, which also include month by month projections, at http://goo.gl/jtJGW. ABRE presents these projections as a “work in progress” and as a tool for assessing how well current sales are performing against some level of “informed” expectation. You should not rely on them, but nonetheless ABRE hopes the projections are found useful. ABRE welcomes comments and suggestions for improvement.

About ABRE Analytics: Strategic collaboration is one of the keys to accelerating the flow of insights in the 21st century. The Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE) and Tom Brander has been successfully collaborating since 2009. The flow of ideas stemming from this relationship have led to solutions to better serve the Alabama real estate industry and consumers. ABRE (ACRE/Brander Real Estate) Analytics is designed to foster future creative thinking while also providing hands-on experience for student interns of ACRE.

About ACRE: ACRE’s core purpose is to advance the profession of real estate in Alabama by providing relevant resources in the areas of research, education and outreach. The Center, founded in 1996 by the Alabama Association of REALTORS, the Alabama Real Estate Commission and the Office of the Dean at UA’SCulverhouse College of Commerce, also acts as an industry liaison for the benefit of business school students pursuing a career in real estate. To learn more, please visit ourwebsite.

About Tom Brander: Tom Brander is a prominent real estate publisher. He produces The Rudulph/Brander Monthly Real Estate Report in the Birmingham, Huntsville and Baldwin County markets. His company, OSWCO, LLC (Open Software Company) is an authorized Google reseller. He has earned the Google apps sales consultant certification and the Google apps deployment certification, from Google. Tom also co-produces the ACRE quarterly Real Estate Sentiment Index and report in conjunction with ACRE. He is a designated ACRE Education Instructor and serves as a member of the ACRE Board of Trustees. To learn more, please visit http://oswco.com.

January Birmingham Residential Sales Up 14% from Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for January 2013

Sales in January declined by 21% to $132,100,460 from December’s $167,858,938, up a healthy 14% from last January’s $115,485,241. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to move up indicating improving market conditions. This is the middle of the slowest three months of the sales season, so it is best not to try to read too much into these results, although the year over year gains are meaningful.

Unit sales were down 14% to 824 in January from 963 in December, a decrease of 139. This is up 7% from January 2012 at 768. Our ABRE/ACRE Projections for 2013 are not yet complete but should be shortly and will be forwarded as soon as completed. The January results are roughly in line with what we expect from the preliminary work on the forecast. New sales declined by 44 units to 87 homes this month from 131 in December and are off from 91 last year. Used sales declined 12% to 737 homes in January from 832 last month, a decrease of 95,  but up 42 from 695 last year(Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 15% lower at 8,781 vs. 10,384 last year and 9,086 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory solidly below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 782 in January from 953 in December, a decline of 171 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 62 for December from 67 in November. Shelby County permits went down to to 17 from 23 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month which is  better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 10 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-8 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply, although over $900,000 the new inventory is at 8 months (only two homes). (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in January shows 8 months, two months better than the 10 months last year. Used Active listings at 7,999 are lower than the 9,487 last year (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,233, which makes up 33% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory which drags down the overall months of inventory for all homes. There are fewer numbers of homes in the over $900,000 price range listed any time since early 2007, although months of inventory is still high due to reduced sales levels.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 201 compared to last month at 172. The Used homes DOM was 146 in January, compared with 141 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $227,836 from $262,835 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes decreased to $152,346 from $160,370 last month (Sect A p2). The moving average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, New and Used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

TWB 2/9/13

North Alabama January Real Estate Sales In-Line with Last Year

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market January 2013

January sales declined by 3% to $80,412,866 vs. December at $117,434,180. This was even with last year’s $80,657,398 The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up.

Total unit sales declined 21% to 524 in January vs. 669 in December, a decrease of 145. This was 3% lower than last year at 539.

Our projections for ACRE and Brander Real Estate for 2013 are not yet complete; we will send them shortly. Early work looks quite encouraging for a continuation of the positive trends experienced last year.

New sales declined to 82 this month vs. 159 last month, down 77.
Used sales decreased to 442 this month vs. 510 last month, down 68 (Sect E  p.3).

Used inventory levels remain high this month at 11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $200,000 are still over 12 months of inventory and over $500,000 have more than two years of inventory.

New home absorption is 9 months of inventory overall with last month at 10 months)(E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$400,000 is approximately 5 months. (Not bad!).

There continue to be a large number of housing permits issued in Huntsville city given the market conditions. For December there were 59, down from 64 in November (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 7,969 compared to last month’s 8,509, and below last year at this time at 8,339, with the reduction exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  The reduction in inventory is a positive thing. The inventory reduction has been good for the last 7 months; hopefully, spring will not bring a dramatic change.

Active New listings decreased from 1,536 last month to 1,329 in January, down 207. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 6,973 last month to 6,640 this month, down 333 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 6,986. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 168 vs. 150 days last month, with Used at 162 in January compared with 160 in December (Sect A p.18).

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $239,861 vs. $257,564 last month. (Sect A p.2)
Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $137,430 vs. $149,964 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is going up nicely. New home average prices seems to be showing positive direction as well.

TWB 2/9/13

Coastal Alabama Real Estate Starts Strong In January

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of January 2013

Sales dollars decreased 25% in January to $59,876,728 from December’s $80,189,682. This is a remarkable 23% above January last year at $48,473,756. (Sect A p.2). This is a solid performance in the normally slowest month. The 12 month moving average line of sales has continued to point up steadily for two years now. Inventories are trending down.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were off 16% at 303 this month vs. last month at 362, which is up 10% from last year’s 276. The year to year comparison remains encouraging.  At the high end, the $900,000 and over sales were 4 this month compared with 5 last year for the same month.

Used Home sales declined 14% to 278 this month vs. 323 last month, which is up 14% from last year’s 244 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 25 this month vs 39 last month compared with 32 last year. Increasing sales of New Homes is indicative of a recovering market.

New listings for New homes declined to 33 from 66 in December. Used homes New listings jumped to 739 from 414 in December with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In January, there were 3,131 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,420 in December. The New home market, which peaked in January 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 299.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 8 months of inventory for January vs. 10 in December. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for January vs. 10 in December. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in January 2008 to 9 months this January.

Average sales price for all homes have been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices decreased to $221,042 from $263,796 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $195,506 from $216,414 in December.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in January was 205 this month vs. 143 last month. Days On Market for Used was 171 this month vs. 181 last month.

We see improvement in the second home market, which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength. While there is still a lot of inventory, I think the situation on the coast has turned quite positive.

TWB 2/9/2013

Alabama Coastal Sales Finish the Year Up

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of December 2012

For 2012 sales increased 16% to $1,032,887,586 from $891,031,102 last year. Unit sales increased by a more modest 4% to 4,595 from 4,413 last year.

Sales dollars increased 10% in December to $79,681,282 from November’s $72,554,282. This is remarkable 35% above December last year at $59,210,303. (Sect A p.2). This is a solid performance in a normally seasonally slow month. The 12 month moving average line of sales is continuing to point up. Inventories are continuing to come down.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses were up 10% to 358 this month vs. last month at 326, which is up from last year’s 308. The year to year comparison remains encouraging.  At the high end, the $900,000 and over sales were 6 this month compared with 4 last year for the same month.

Used Home sales improved 8% to 320 this month vs. 296 last month, which is up 13% from last year’s 283 (Sect A p.18). New Home sales were 38 this month vs 30 last month which compares favorably with 25 last year. Increasing sales of New Homes is indicative of a recovering market.

New listings for New homes remained about the same at 66 and 59 in November. Used homes New listings remain constrained at 396 from 487 in November with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In December, there were 3,085 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,596 in November. The New home market, which peaked in December 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 323.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 9 months of inventory for December vs. 10 in November. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 9 months of inventory for December vs. 11 in November. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in December 2008 to 9 months this December.

Average sales price for all homes have been improving modestly for the past year. For New units, prices increased to $267,225 from $234,679 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $217,271 from $221,331 in November.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in December was 143 this month vs. 136 last month. Days On Market for Used was 181 this month vs. 161 last month.

We see improvement in the second home market, which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength. While there is still a lot of inventory, I think the situation on the coast has turned quite positive.

TWB 1/12/2013

Huntsville November Real Estate Sales Up 15% Year to Year

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market November 2012

November sales declined by 7% to $119,770,552 vs. October at $128,770,552. This was 15% above last year’s $104,331,518. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is heading up.

Total unit sales declined 5% to 710 in November vs. 793 in October, a decrease of 40. This was 6% favorable to last year at 670.

Note that our projection for November was 672 sales, so the actual results were 6% favorable for the month and 1% favorable year to date. Full spreadsheets and projections, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate), are available at  http://goo.gl/WFHrO) .

New sales declined to 142 this month vs. 151 last month, decreasing 9.
Used sales decreased to 568 this month vs. 642 last month, down 74 (Sect E  p.3).

Used inventory levels remain high this month at 11 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $200,000 are still over 12 months of inventory and over $500,000 have  more than two years of inventory.

New home absorption is 8 months of inventory overall, (with last month at 10 months) (E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$400,000 is approximately 6 months. (Not bad!).

There continue to be a large number of housing permits issued in Huntsville city given the market conditions. For October there were 97 (census estimate), down from 99 in September(chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,074 compared to last month’s 9,039, which is below last year at this time at 8,915, with the reduction exaggerated due to month-end expirations.
(Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  The reduction in inventory is a good thing. But we must note that the inventory level has remained constant over the last few months, stopping the decline.

Active New listings decreased from 1,502 last month to 1,202 in November, down 300. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 7,537 last month to 6,872 this month, down 665 and slightly below last year’s amount at this time of 7,562. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 153 vs. 166 days last month, with Used at 152 in November compared with 151 in October (Sect A p.18). Sellers, including bank owners, who do not adjust to the new price reality, contribute to the buildup of inventory.

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $243,408 vs. $252,636 last month. (Sect A p.2)
Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $150,012 vs. $140,894 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price line for Used homes is once again showing some stability. New home average price seems to be showing some positive direction. Prices for individual properties remain under pressure.

TWB 12/15/12

 

Birmingham October Sales up 19% From Last Year

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for October 2012

Sales in October declined by 5% to $175,248,097 from September’s $184,208,759, up a healthy 19% from last October’s $147,669,623. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales continues to be tilted upward.

Unit sales were down 4% to 1,021 in October from 1,068 in September, a decrease of 47. This is up 2% from October 2011 at 998. This is 5% unfavorable to our projection of 1,085 sales expected for October and 8% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE, (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) ,can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. New sales declined 9% to 120 homes this month from 132 in September, a decrease of 12 units. Used sales declined 4% to 901 homes in October from 936 last month, a decrease of 35 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is 15% lower at 9,692 vs. 11,369 last year and 10,476 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. It is encouraging to see total inventory below 10,000. Active New listings decreased to 765 in October from 1,010 in September, a decline of 245 units (Sect E p.3).  Housing permits went down in Jefferson County to 67 for September from 90 in August. Shelby County permits went down to 18 from 27 (see website for details). First time in a while that it seems that sales are exceeding permits, which is a good sign.

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is fairly steady. New homes are at 6 months supply this month, and better than last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply last month shows 8 months. Under $100,000 New homes is at 13 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$700,000 price range have normal inventory levels in the 4-6 month range. Higher price ranges are one to two years of supply (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in October shows 9 months, three months better than the 12 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,927 are lower than the 10,393 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3). Interestingly, the under $100,000 market with an average list price of $59,242, which makes up 31% of all listings, is at 7 months of inventory, which drags the overall months of inventory down for all homes.

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses is 181 compared to last month at 173. The Used homes DOM was 143 in October, compared with 145 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the slower sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $246,255 from $267,803 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $161,706 from $159,037 last month (Sect A p2). The average price for Used Homes has been moving up steadily since the beginning of the year. The 12 month moving average line for New home prices has also been heading up quite nicely since the beginning of the year. Average Home prices, new and used, are improving  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure. Just a note: Average prices are up slightly from 2007 levels.

The differences between our numbers and the Board of MLS numbers are  due to our taking in all the data in the MLS system while they report on a more concentrated area picked from the whole; therefore we have more of the surrounding rural areas, which are not as volatile.

TWB 11/10/12