Birmingham April Real Estate Sales Continue An Improving Trend

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for April 2012

Sales in April improved 10% to $189,845,478 from March’s $172,627,863, up 20% from last April’s $158,607,279. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales has tilted upward nicely.

Unit sales were up 5% to 1,175 in April from 1,123 in March, an increase of 52. This is up 15% from April 2011 at 1,026. This is 7% unfavorable to our projection of 1,264 sales expected for April and 9% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO along with the worksheets that show the methodology. It appears that the results are closing in on projections as the spring unfolds. New sales declined 4% to 108 homes this month from 113 in March, a decrease of 5 units. Used sales improved 6% to 1,067 homes in April from 1,010 last month, an increase of 57 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is dramatically lower at 10,177 vs. 12,884 last year and 10,627 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Still, there is less of a seasonal increase in listings than last year. Active New listings decreased to 774 in April from 1,108 in March, a decline of 334 units (Sect E p.3). Housing permits went up for Jefferson county to 120 for March up from 95 for February. (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is improving. New homes are at 6 months supply this month with a reduced sales pace, and better than last year at this time at 9 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply seems to be in a “normal” state. Under $100,000 New homes are at 14 months supply and improving. The New homes in the $100,000-$400,000 price range have an almost normal inventory level in the 6-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in April shows 10 months, four months better than 14 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,403 are lower than the 11,761 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3).

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 233 compared to last month at 194 . The Used homes DOM was 136 in April, compared with 146 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used Homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. The high months of inventory indicates that sellers, including bank owners, are still holding out for higher prices. Again: If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the most active sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $228,311 from $237,235 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $154,525 from $144,377 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used Homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. Average Home prices, new and used, have stabilized  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 5/10/12

Huntsville, North Alabama April Real Estate Sales Way Better Than Last Year

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market April 2012

April sales improved 16% to $130,145,324 vs. March at $112,517,881 This was 41% above last year’s $92,039,477. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is flat, but with a small hook up at the end.

Total unit sales increased 9% to 792 in April vs. 725 in March, an increase of 93. This was 45% favorable to last year at 547.

Note that our projection for April was 744, so the actual results were 6% favorable for the month and less than 1% favorable year to date. (Full spreadsheets and projections (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) are available at  http://goo.gl/WFHrO) .

New sales were up slightly to 126 this month vs.124 last month.
Used sales increased to 596 this month vs. 505 last month, increasing 91 (Sect E  p.3).

Used inventory levels remain high this month at 12 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $100,000 are still over 12 months of inventory and over $500,000 have about two or more years of inventory.

New home absorption is 8 months of inventory overall, (with last month at 10 months) (E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$400,000 is approximately 5 months (not bad).

There continue to be a large number of housing permits issued in Huntsville city given the market conditions. For March there were 83, up from 65 in February (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,451 compared to last month’s 8,798, which is below last year at this time at 10,763, with the reduction exaggerated due to month-end expirations.
(Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  The reduction in inventory is a good thing.

Active New listings decreased from 1,462 last month to 1,162 in April, down 300. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 7,336 last month to 7,289 this month, down 47 and below last year’s amount at this time of 8,007. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 197 vs.167 days last month, with Used at 149 in April compared with 165 in March (Sect A p.18). Days on Market at or below 6 months, while the inventory numbers are way higher, indicates well priced homes are selling. Sellers, including bank owners, who do not adjust to the new price reality contribute to the buildup of inventory.

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $236,156 vs. $235,148 last month. (Sect A p.2)
Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $145,042 vs. $136,046 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The average price lines for Used homes, which was on an upwards slope for a while, is now on a downward trend. New homes average price seems to be showing some positive direction. Prices for individual properties remain under pressure.

TWB 5/10/12

April Real Estate Sales up Modestly on the Gulf Coast

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of April 2012

Sales Dollars increased 10% in April to $87,503,716 from March’s $79,325,500. This is less than 1% above April last year at $86,856,013. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is flat once again. Inventories are continuing to come down. It is hard to read too much in to comparable sales in these slow months.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses improved 5% to 407 this month vs. 388 last month, which is 4% down from last year’s 425. So far, the sales for the year are following the same pattern and volume as last year, which is somewhat disappointing. Hopefully,over the next few months we will see improved results.

Used Home sales improved 4% to 372 this month vs. 357 last month, which is down 7% from last year’s 398 (Sect A p.18). The increase in sales in the under $200,000 range, that we noted last month, continues with 217 for April, accounting for 58% of all sales. New Home sales were 35 this month vs 31 last month. Low sales of New homes reflects intense competition from existing, and the shutdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes decreased to 39 from 53 in March. Used houses New listings increased to 631 from 629 in March with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In April, there were 3,563 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,899 in March. The New home market, which peaked in April 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 275.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 9 months of inventory for April vs. 12 in March. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 11 months of inventory for April vs. 12 in March. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in April 2008 to 11 months this April.

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year. For New units, prices increased to $233,069 from $222,851 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices increased to $213,297 from $202,849 in March.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in April was 189 this month vs. 206 last month. Days On Market for Used was 166 this month vs.178 last month.

We are seeing a pick-up in both Birmingham and Huntsville residential sales. Whether it will translate into enough demand to help the second home market, which is needed for the coastal area to gain strength, remains an open question.

TWB 5/12/2012

Real Estate Professionals More Optimistic As Summer Approaches

Summary The survey projects expectations for the 2nd quarter of 2012. The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

The professional Real Estate community’s optimism continues to improve. The outlook for sales (yellow) this quarter is at the highest level recorded in the three years this survey has been conducted, 61, a five point improvement from last quarter. This is one point higher than last year at this time.

While all scores are up to new highs, the survey participants are still expecting continued declines in prices (47) and credit availability (48). The national score at 52, up from 48 last quarter, indicates that respondents are more constructive on the overall economic picture. The participants moved to positive sentiment on the statewide conditions at 59 up 5 points from last quarter. Sales expectations are more positive at 61 again up 5 points from last quarter. Inventory expectations improved to 52 from last quarter, the first time this indicator has been above 50 indicating improving conditions expected. Sellers are likely to be frustrated by pricing, and buyers will continue to have problems getting financing.

Regional Results:

The sales expectations for each region are within 1 point of each other from 60-61.

This quarter showed an improvement in all measures and in all regions. To some degree this is a seasonal phenomena, the levels are at high points in the three year history of the survey. Of course the three years of the survey have been some of the most challenging in recent times. None the less the results are encouraging, and taken together with the early results of actual sales in the 1st quarter and the new ABRE sales projections for the remainder of the year that ACRE/Brander has recently released all point to improving conditions.

Commercial market participants (the majority of the respondents are from the Birmingham market area) moved to projecting a continuing improving market this quarter at 59 this quarter vs. 54 last for sales expectations. Price expectations are still soft, at 48 vs 45 last quarter indicating pricing pressure. The score for credit availability has turned constructive, at 54 up from 48 points from last quarter.

North Region

North Alabamaexperienced a consistent improvement in all scores.  The total score of 53, up from 51, a 2 point improvement from last quarter. The Rural markets were an exception to the increasing sales expectations with a drop to 50 from 59 last quarter.

North Central Region

The North Central Region overall score improved to 54 from 50 last quarter, The sales score improved 6 points to 61. Inventory is continuing to improve at 53 with, pricing, and credit below the 50 mark at 47, and 49 respectively.

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants outlook for sales improved 6 points to 61.  Rural participants sales expectations improved 10 points to 60.

South Region

The Southern Region sales score improved 4 points to 60. Rural participants sales expectations improved 7 points to 57.

About the Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index and Survey:

Almost 500 professionals responded to the 2nd quarter 2012 survey which was conducted during the month of March 2012. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate now has the largest participation of any real estate survey. It provides important market insights. Full history and scores for each market segment are located here on the web http://goo.gl/n6o8O

The ACRE Leadership Council  determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu

Birmingham March Residential Real Estate Sales Soft

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for March 2012

Sales in March improved 17% to $162,227,603 from February’s $139,164,184, down 1% from last March’s $164,121,105. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales is tilted upward.

Unit sales were up 15% to 1060 in March from 919 in February, an increase of 141. This is off 1% from March 2011 at 1,076. This is 21% unfavorable to our projection of 1,279 sales expected for March and 15% unfavorable year to date. The complete monthly projections from ABRE (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) can be found here http://goo.gl/WFHrO (along with the worksheets that show the methodology). It is likely that the results will close in on projections as the spring unfolds. New sales declined 11% to 102 homes this month from 114 in February, a decrease of 12 units. Used sales improved 19% to 958 homes in March from 805 last month, an increase of 153 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is dramatically lower at 10,138 vs. 12,900 last year and 10,720 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 834 in March from 1,123 in February, a decline of 289 units (Sect E p.3).Housing permits showed an increase in Jefferson County to 95 in February from 79 in January. Shelby County was down to 15 from 20 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is improving.New homes are at 7 months supply this month with a reduced sales pace, and about even with last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply seems to be stable. Under $100,000 New homes are at 20 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$400,000 price range have an almost normal inventory level in the 6-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in March shows 10 months, four months better than 14 months last year. Used Active listings at 9,304 are lower than the 11,754 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3).

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 194 compared to last month at 208 . The Used homes DOM was 146 in March, compared with 153 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used Homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. The high months of inventory indicates that sellers, including bank owners, are still holding out for higher prices. Again: If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are in the more active sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $237,079 from $237,357 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $144,098 from $139,262 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used Homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. Average Home prices, new and used, have stabilized  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 4/6/12

Huntsville Alabama March Residential Real Estate Soft

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market March 2012

March sales improved 21% to $107,628,592 vs. February at $88,706,797 This was 1% below last year’s $109,030,802. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is flat.

Total unit sales increased 15% to 710 in March vs. 617 in February, an increase of 93. This was 3% favorable to last year at 690.

Note that our projection for March was 763, so the actual results were 7% unfavorable and 4% unfavorable year to date. (Full spreadsheets and projections (a joint project between ACRE and Brander Real Estate) are available at  http://goo.gl/WFHrO) .

New sales were up slightly to 114 this month vs.112 last month.
Used sales increased to 596 this month vs. 505 last month, increasing 91 (Sect E  p.3).

Used inventory levels remain high this month at 12 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $100,000 are still over 12 months of inventory and over $400,000 have about two or more years of inventory.

New home absorption is 8 months of inventory overall, (with last month at 10 months) (E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$400,000 is approximately 5 months (not bad).

There continue to be a large number of housing permits issued in Huntsville city, given the market conditions. February decreased to 65 vs. 74 in January (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 8,204 compared to last month’s 8,642, which is below last year at this time at 9,188, with the reduction exaggerated due to month-end expirations.
(Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  The reduction, even if due to discouraged sellers, is a good thing.

Active New listings decreased from 1,466 last month to 1,217 in March, down 249. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 7,176 last month to 6,987 this month, down 189 and below last year’s amount at this time of 7,865. (Sect E p.3).

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 167 vs.186 days last month, with Used at 165 in March compared with 166 in February (Sect A p.18). Days on Market at or below 6 months, while the inventory numbers are way higher, indicates well priced homes are selling. Sellers, including bank owners, who do not adjust to the new price reality contribute to the buildup of inventory.

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $235,115 vs. $207,692 last month. (Sect A p.2)
Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $135,613 vs. $129,595 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The Average price lines for Used homes, which was on an upwards slope for a while, is now on a downward trend. New homes average price seems to be showing some positive direction. Prices for individual properties remain under pressure.

TWB 4/06/12

March 2012 Residential Sales Soft On The Alabama Coast

Baldwin County & Alabama Coastal MLS*: Observations for the Month of March 2012

Sales Dollars increased 21% in March to $78,411,645 from February’s $64,803,320. This is 8% above March last year at $72,390,530. (Sect A p.2). The 12 month moving average line of sales is flat once again. Inventories are continuing to come down. It is hard to read too much into comparable sales in these slow months.

On a unit basis, sales of all houses improved 24% to 383 this month vs. 308 last month, which is 2% down from last year’s 390.

Used Home sales improved 31% to 354 this month vs. 271 last month, which is down 1% from last year’s 356 (Sect A p.18). There was a noticeable increase in sales in the under $200,000 range, to 226 units. New Home sales were 29 this month vs 37 last month. Low sales of New homes reflects intense competition from existing, and the shutdown of new construction.

New listings for New homes decreased to 39 from 53 in February. Used houses New listings increased to 631 from 629 in February with net inventory down.

The absolute number of Used Active homes on the market, which had a slight peak mid-summer of ‘09, has once again been improving. In March, there were 3,431 Active Used homes, a reduction from 3,818 in February. The New home market, which peaked in March 2006 at 2,144 Active, now sits at 297.

The Absorption rate for New homes was 10 months of inventory for March vs. 12 in February. The Absorption rate for Used homes was 10 months of inventory for March vs. 11 in February. Over the last four years the drop in months of inventory for Used homes has been steady and impressive from 25 months plus in March 2008 to 10 months this March.

Average sales price for all homes has been stable for the past year.For New units, prices increased to $230,466 from $185,463 last month. (Sect A p.14). Average Used home prices decreased to $202,622 from $213,805 in February.

Average Days On Market for New Sold properties in March was 206 this month vs. 176 last month. Days On Market for Used was 178 this month vs.196 last month.

We modified the subdivision charts to show those subdivisions with more than 20 sales since 2008 rather than 2005, we hope it make it easier to find subdivisions of interest.

TWB 4/8/2012

Sales Projections for Alabama Real Estate Markets 2012

ABRE Analytics studies correlation between unemployment rates and future real estate sales projections; projects statewide real estate sales growth of 13%

With the release of the metro unemployment data for January 2012, ABRE Analytics is pleased to present our combined projections and commentary for the Alabama real estate market. One note, the current projections are considerably more optimistic than the preliminary ones due to the much better than expected unemployment rates.

Area	2011 Projection	2011 Actual	2011 Error	2012 Projection	Correlation% 2004-2011	% change from 2011
Statewide	37,118	36,965	-0.41%	41,992	83.68%	13.60%
Huntsville	8,259	8,610	4.23%	9,050	77.60%	5.11%
Birmingham	12,737	12,468	-2.15%	14,550	86.77%	16.70%
Auburn	1,016	1,132	10.27%	1,138	83.40%	0.49%
Tuscaloosa	1,662	1,743	4.64%	1,826	80.62%	4.78%
Montgomery	3,335	2,774	-20.24%	3,679	84.65%	32.63%

Preliminary looks at the Mobile and Baldwin county areas showed poor results, probably mostly due to exogenous events like hurricanes and oil spills. The projected increase for Montgomery seems out of line. It is also noted that the performance of the projection for 2011 in Montgomery was quite poor. Possible reasons include the high dependence on government employment and the high uncertainty surrounding it in spite of the low, and declining unemployment rate.

ABRE Analytics present these projections as a “work in progress” and as a tool for assessing how well current sales are performing against some level of “informed” expectation. You should not rely on them, but nonetheless we hope you will find them useful.

It is always possible that catastrophic financial events or natural disasters will dramatically change people’s outlook for the future and therefore immediately impact the plans for home purchases. For the time being however we do not see anything that predicts nearly as well as unemployment. Unemployment rates have issues such as people dropping out of the workforce, but overall dropping rates are one of the best indicators of consumer expectations, and therefore predictors of home buying intent.

In the process of developing this methodology we also tested it in other geographies and found similar results. Further, we tried to find correlations to mortgage interest rates and found them to be not at all predictive of home buying activity.

Month to month break-out of the yearly projections are done by taking the sum of the 2004-2011 monthly volumes, for each market, and deriving the monthly spread of sales from those volumes.

The monthly estimated volumes do show more variation since we are dealing at finer levels of detail. The monthly tables are located here http://goo.gl/WFHrO, along with all the worksheets for deriving the forecasts.. The detailed spreadsheets also show the 1st two months projections vs. actuals for 2012, which look quite accurate, except for the previously mentioned Montgomery.

About ABRE Analytics: Strategic collaboration is one of the keys to accelerating the flow of insights in the 21st century. The Alabama Center for Real Estate (ACRE) and Tom Brander has been successfully collaborating since 2009 when Mr. Brander was appointed to the ACRE Leadership Council. Council members provide insight and counsel on current market trends, and enhance the sustainability of ACRE through vision, resourcefulness, and creativity. Without creativity and collaboration, two recent ACRE projects, the “Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index” and the “Alabama Residential Data Center” gadget for smartphones would still be on the drawing board. The flow of ideas that in turn lead to solutions to better serve the Alabama real estate industry and consumers is virtually an endless stream and ACRE and Tom Brander are forming ABRE (ACRE/Brander Real Estate) Analytics as a strategic collaborative umbrella that will foster future creative thinking while also providing hands-on experience for student/interns of ACRE.

This latest initiative explores methods to project future residential real estate sales. “Late last year, Tom shared his published preliminary projections that were based on estimates of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics January unemployment rates for a limited area in Alabama. The preliminary results looked quite good and initial test showed high accuracy for 2011 (when calculated blind from the 2011 January unemployment data) and ACRE desired to broaden the project across applicable statewide markets”, according to Grayson Glaze, executive director of ACRE.

About ACRE: ACRE, housed within the UA’s Culverhouse College of Commerce, collects, maintains and analyzes the state’s real estate statistics, and is a trusted resource for Alabama real estate research, education and outreach. The relationship between the Center and our industry stakeholders is one of the Center’s greatest strengths. Alabama companies and individuals partner with the Center bringing a wealth of resources and experiences, becoming, in effect, extensions of the Center, a network through which our outreach to the Alabama real estate industry is enhanced and enriched.To learn more, please visit www.acre.cba.ua.edu.

About Tom Brander: Tom provides Real Estate market reporting services which can be found at http://tombrander.com and Software services for Web, mobile and Data analysis, using Open Source Software, more information at http://oswco.com . He is a senior member of the ACRE Advisory council, and assists ACRE in its research programs.

February Birmingham Real Estate Sales a Good Harbinger For Spring

Birmingham Area MLS* Monthly Observations for February 2012

It is shaping up to be good spring! Sales in February improved 20% to $136,263,984 from January’s $113,514,352, up 18% from last February’s $115,791,214. The 12 month moving average line for total dollar sales is tilted increasingly upward.

Unit sales were up 18% to 906 in February from 771 in January, an increase of 135. This is a 17% improvement from February 2010 at 773. This is 2.7% unfavorable to our preliminary projection of 930 sales expected for February. Our full year projections will be revised up due to the final January 2012 unemployment rate being better than expected. (I did not want to hold this report up any more to wait on that). New sales improved 29% to 111 homes this month from 86 in January, an increase of 25 units. Used sales improved  16% to 795 homes in February from 685 last month, an increase of 110 (Sect E p.3).

This month total inventory is dramatically lower at 9,756 vs. 12,483 last year and 10,519 last month. The drop in the current month is caused by month-end expirations which should come back on the market shortly. Active New listings decreased to 807 in February from 1,076 in January, a decline of 269 units (Sect E p.3).Housingpermits showed an increase in Jefferson County to 79 in January from 64 in December. Shelby County was up to 20 from 6 (see website for details).

Absorption rate for New and Used homes is improving. New homes are at 7 months supply this month with a reduced sales pace, and about even with last year at this time at 8 months (Sect E p.3). New home supply seems to be stable. Under $100,000 New homes are at 18 months supply. The New homes in the $100,000-$400,000 price range have an almost normal inventory level in the 6-7 month range. (Sect C p.1 and Sect E p.3.)

Absorption for Used homes in February shows 10 months, three months better than 13 months last year. Used Active listings at 8,949 are lower than the 11,320 last year (Sect E p.3), (Sect E p.3).

Birmingham area Average Days on Market for New houses was 208 compared to last month at 215 . The Used homes DOM was 153 in February, compared with 143 last month (Sect A p.18). NOTE: DOM for Used Homes indicates that well priced homes are moving in less than 6 months. The high months of inventory indicates that sellers, including bank owners, are still holding out for higher prices. Again: If the home is not selling, reduce the price, particularly since we are entering the more active sales season of the year.

Average sales price for Sold New homes decreased to $240,076 from $242,347 last month (Sect A p2). Average sales prices for Sold Used homes increased to $137,881 from $135,288 last month (Sect A p2). The twelve month moving average price line for Used Homes has been quite steady since mid 2009. Average Home prices, new and used, have stabilized  (Sect A p2). The price of any specific home still remains under pressure.

TWB 3/16/12

February Real Estate Sales Soft In Huntsville

Huntsville/North Alabama Area MLS Observations: Real Estate Market February 2012

February sales improved 10% to $87,702,197 vs. January at $80,004,946. This was 6% below last year’s $93,076,486. The twelve month moving average line on the total dollar sales chart is flat.

Total unit sales increased to 610 in February vs. 536 in January, an increase of 74. This was favorable to last year at 585.

Note that our projection for February was 607 so the actual results were .5% favorable.  This will probably increase as late sales are reported. We will be revising the full year projections now that the final un-employment statistics for January are available, but I did not want to delay this report. But based on the close results I think we are onto something!

New sales remained at 110 this month vs.110 last month.

Used sales increased to 500 this month vs. 426 last month, increasing 74 (Sect E  p.3).

Used inventory levels remain high this month at 12 months (see the chart Sect C p.1), with the situation particularly challenged in the higher price ranges. Used homes over $100,000 are still over 12 months of inventory and over $400,000 have two or more years of inventory.

New home absorption is 8 months of inventory overall, (with last month at 10 months), (E-1). The New Home inventory level in the $300,000-$400,000 is approximately 5 months (not bad).

There continue to be a large number ofhousingpermits issued in Huntsville city, given the market conditions. January increased to 74 vs. 56  in December (chart on the web site).

Total Active listings decreased this month to 7,959 compared to last month’s 8,512, which is below last year at this time at 8,958 with the reduction exaggerated due to month-end expirations. (Sect A p.4 and Sect E p.3).  The reduction, even if due to discouraged sellers, is a good thing.

Active New listings decreased from 1,479 last month to 1,216 in February, down 263. (Sect E p.3). Active Used listings decreased from 7,033 last month to 6,734 this month, down 299 and below last year’s amount at this time of 7,619. (Sect E p.3)

Average Days on Market for Sold New homes was 186 vs.163 days last month, with Used at 166 in February compared with 167 in January (Sect A p.18). Days on Market at or below 6 months, while the inventory numbers are way higher, indicates well priced homes are selling. Sellers, including bank owners, who do not adjust to the new price reality contribute to the buildup of inventory.

Average sales price for Sold New homes was $208,768 vs. $229,095 last month. (Sect A p.2)

Average sales price for Sold Used homes was $129,475 vs. $128,649 last month. (Sect A p.2)

The Average price lines for Used homes, which was on a upwards slope for a while, is now on a downward trend. New homes average price seems to be showing some positive direction. Prices for individual properties remain under pressure.

TWB 3/18/12