Alabama Real Estate confidence index


Summary

The survey projects expectations for the 3rd quarter of 2012. The scale ranges from 0-100 with 0 being much worse, 100 being much better, and 50 indicating no change expected.

The professional Real Estate community’s optimism tempered somewhat this quarter. The outlook for sales (yellow) this quarter is still showing improvement expected, from 61 to 58 this quarter, but not at the same pace as last quarter. This is 4 points higher than last year at this time.

Overall Indicators

Overall Indicators

While all scores are down modestly except for price expectations, which still indicate continued declines in prices (48) and credit availability (48). The national score at 49, down from 52 last quarter, indicates that respondents are more pessimistic about the overall economic picture. The participants remained positive on the statewide conditions at 57 down 2 points from last quarter. Sales expectations are more positive at 58 again down 3 points from last quarter. Inventory expectations remained at 52 indicating continued improving conditions expected. Sellers are likely to be frustrated by pricing, and buyers will continue to have problems getting financing.

Regional Results:

The coastal region continued its’ upward trend in most measures and is now the most optimistic in the state. On an overall basis all areas remain above 50, indicating expansion expected.

Regional Indicators

Regional Indicators

This quarter showed deterioration in all measures and in all regions except on the coast. To some degree this may be a seasonal phenomena. None the less the results are still encouraging, with most measures still in the expansion zone, over 50

Commercial market participants (the majority of the respondents are from the Birmingham market area) moved to projecting a slowing improving market this quarter at 52 this quarter vs. 59 last quarter for sales expectations. Price expectations are still soft, at 47 vs 48 last quarter indicating pricing pressure. The score for credit availability remains constructive, at 51 down from 54 points from last quarter.

North Region

North Alabama experienced a modest deterioration in most scores.  The total score of 51, down from 53, a 2 point decline from last quarter. The Rural markets were an exception. increasing sales expectations to 54 from 50 last quarter.

North Central Region

The North Central Region overall score declined to 51 from 54 last quarter, The sales score declined 6 points to 55. Inventory is continuing to improve at 51 with, pricing, and credit below the 50 mark with each at 48.

South Central Region

The South Central Region participants outlook for sales declined 5 points to 56.

South Region

The Southern Region sales score improved 3 points to 63. Rural participants sales expectations improved 6 points to 63.

About the Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index and Survey:

More than 400 professionals responded to the 3rd quarter 2012 survey which was conducted during the month of June 2012. The survey, conducted by the Alabama Center For Real Estate now has the largest participation of any real estate survey. It provides important market insights. Full history and scores for each market segment are located here on the web http://goo.gl/XoNZE

The ACRE Leadership Council  determined the need for a statewide industry confidence index and this was adopted as the Council’s first initiative. Tom Brander, Council Member, was selected by the Council and Grayson Glaze, ACRE Executive Director, to spearhead and work with the Center to conduct and produce its Alabama Real Estate Confidence Index (ARECI). The Council appreciates everyone who participated.

For further information contact Tom Brander at Tombrander@tombrander.com or Grayson Glaze at gglaze@cba.ua.edu

 

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