12 Month New Home Sales Off 30% In Hoover/Bluff Park/Riverchase Area 250: November 2008


For at least the past two years this area, which is geographically quite large, has had the largest number of new home sales, 43% more new home sales than the next largest MLS area, which is, the (282) Adger/McCalla/Oxmoor Valley area. For the twelve months ending November 2008 unit sales of new homes were down 30 % as compared with 2007 (432 vs. 620). If you need help buying or selling, put these powerful research tools to work for you by contacting Shasta Brander, Realtor. (click for her web site).

Area 250 Summary Table

Area 250 Summary Table

The table above (click for larger) shows an overview of the area for the month of November 2008. Broken down by price range, the table shows for the current month: Active Used and New houses, Failed (expired, canceled or withdrawn) Pending Sold, and New listings. The next column shows how many houses were sold in the last 12 months. Next, for active listings, the average price, within the price range. Next the average Sold price for those that sold this month. Then, the Days on Market (DOM), for sold houses only and last the Absorption in months of inventory. Absorption is the current inventory divided by the last 12 months sales times 12. This shows the number of months it would take to sell the active houses if the future sales rate remains as it was for the last 12 months.

The total line represents the totals and averages for the entire area.

Area 250 New Subdivision Detail

Area 250 New Subdivision Detail

This second table (click for larger) selects only New homes and those subdivisions that have had 5 or more sales in the last 12 months. All other New homes in the area are in the “Other” subdivision. Looking at the “other” subdivision one can see the averages for the smaller and one off New Home subdivisions and compare how they are doing vs. the larger subdivisions. The “Other” subdivision has the largest number of houses and that the absorption rate is 39 months. In general larger subdivisions are performing better, with the absorption in months of inventory lower. Note that this can be distorted on a “new” subdivision that has not been on the market for a year.

This next section is new for us but quite powerful. It takes all New house activities, (Active, Pending, Failed and Sold) , and picks those subdivisions that have at least 5, and gives details for that subdivision, for the current month only. It also puts all others into a subdivision called “Xother”. But the big difference is that we report on the competing resale/used/existing homes in the same subdivision since we are now seeing an increase in the competition from Existing/Used stock.

Caldwell Crossings

Caldwell Crossings

An example of this is the first subdivision Caldwell Crossing (click for larger) which shows 13 active “Existing” listings at an average price of $311,781 and 5 New at an average of about $400,000. One house sold Last month, a used one for $289,000.

Lake Cyrus

Lake Cyrus

Lake Cyrus (Click for larger) shows a different situation with the Resales being listed at higher prices than the New construction. Both New and Existing had sales last month but at the low end of the price range.

The entire detail is here(pdf): Area 250 detail Nov ‘08 Hoover, Bluff Park, Riverchase

The overall trends can best be seen in this Chart:

Area 250 Chart-Overall

Area 250 Chart-Overall

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